Okay, okay.  I don't mean this posting to be insulting at all.  I just thought the title was appropriate.

Jeff Edwards has shown us a clear and striking relationship between accidents and time-in-type.  The conclusion is unambiguous.  Thanks, Jeff, for this wake-up call.

I am writing this, however, to address the subsequent pie chart he sent us which suggests a disproportionate accident rate for private pilots flying Lancairs (almost half of all Lancair accidents involve private pilots) as compared to the private pilot general population (about a third of all pilots are private pilots).  Jeff's presentation suggests that the private pilot is LESS SAFE.  And he/she may be less safe, but...

The missing piece is the percentage of Lancairs that are flown by private, commercial, or ATP pilots.  Look at this example -- if 100 Lancairs are flown, three-quarters by private pilots, one quarter by commercial pilots, and only one by an ATP, then the picture changes.  Jeff's data would suggest that the private pilots are actually SAFER!

The desired conclusion -- are private pilots MORE or LESS safe than their higher licensed brethren -- cannot be made without this missing information.

Jeff, keep up the good work.  We should all be paying attention.

-- Rob Wolf
Commercial Pilot
500 hours total
Zero hours in Lancairs