X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Sat, 08 Nov 2008 10:10:45 -0500 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from imo-m21.mx.aol.com ([64.12.137.2] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.2.10) with ESMTP id 3281318 for lml@lancaironline.net; Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:06:27 -0500 Received: from VTAILJEFF@aol.com by imo-m21.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v39.1.) id q.be6.3b0ebcde (37050) for ; Fri, 7 Nov 2008 19:06:23 -0500 (EST) Received: from webmail-db11 (webmail-db11.webmail.aol.com [205.188.105.76]) by cia-db03.mx.aol.com (v121_r4.6) with ESMTP id MAILCIADB038-90ba4914d7ff290; Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:06:23 -0500 References: X-Original-To: lml@lancaironline.net Subject: Re: [LML] Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics X-Original-Date: Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:06:23 -0500 X-AOL-IP: 75.63.172.168 In-Reply-To: X-MB-Message-Source: WebUI MIME-Version: 1.0 From: vtailjeff@aol.com X-MB-Message-Type: User Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="--------MB_8CB0F4CF8571C9A_1520_3D01_webmail-db11.sysops.aol.com" X-Mailer: AOL Webmail 39598-STANDARD Received: from 75.63.172.168 by webmail-db11.sysops.aol.com (205.188.105.76) with HTTP (WebMailUI); Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:06:23 -0500 X-Original-Message-Id: <8CB0F4CF84D933A-1520-1DF1@webmail-db11.sysops.aol.com> X-Spam-Flag:NO ----------MB_8CB0F4CF8571C9A_1520_3D01_webmail-db11.sysops.aol.com Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Rob, You are absolutely correct... I wish I knew how many of us that fly these?have what kinds of pilot certificates. The closest I can come is to compare the GA fleet numbers and there is a big correlation between accidents and certificate held. Bottom line-- a private pilot certificate is a license to learn... Jeff -----Original Message----- From: rwolf99@aol.com To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Fri, 7 Nov 2008 5:37 pm Subject: [LML] Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics Okay, okay.? I don't mean this posting to be insulting at all.? I just thought the title was appropriate. Jeff Edwards has shown us a clear and striking relationship between accidents and time-in-type.? The conclusion is unambiguous.? Thanks, Jeff, for this wake-up call. I am writing this, however, to address the subsequent pie chart he sent us which suggests a disproportionate accident rate for private pilots flying Lancairs (almost half of all Lancair accidents involve private pilots) as compared to the private pilot general population (about a third of all pilots are private pilots).? Jeff's presentation suggests that the private pilot is LESS SAFE.? And he/she may be less safe, but... The missing piece is the percentage of Lancairs that are flown by private, commercial, or ATP pilots.? Look at this example -- if 100 Lancairs are flown, three-quarters by private pilots, one quarter by commercial pilots, and only one by an ATP, then the picture changes.? Jeff's data would suggest that the private pilots are actually SAFER! The desired conclusion -- are private pilots MORE or LESS safe than their higher licensed brethren -- cannot be made without this missing information. Jeff,?keep up the good work.? We should all be paying attention. -- Rob Wolf Commercial Pilot 500 hours total Zero hours in Lancairs Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you browse with the Games Toolbar - Download Now! ----------MB_8CB0F4CF8571C9A_1520_3D01_webmail-db11.sysops.aol.com Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Rob,

You are absolutely correct... I wish I knew how many of us that fly these have what kinds of pilot certificates. The closest I can come is to compare the GA fleet numbers and there is a big correlation between accidents and certificate held. Bottom line-- a private pilot certificate is a license to learn...

Jeff


-----Original Message-----
From: rwolf99@aol.com
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Fri, 7 Nov 2008 5:37 pm
Subject: [LML] Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Okay, okay.  I don't mean this posting to be insulting at all.  I just thought the title was appropriate.

Jeff Edwards has shown us a clear and striking relationship between accidents and time-in-type.  The conclusion is unambiguous.  Thanks, Jeff, for this wake-up call.

I am writing this, however, to address the subsequent pie chart he sent us which suggests a disproportionate accident rate for private pilots flying Lancairs (almost half of all Lancair accidents involve private pilots) as compared to the private pilot general population (about a third of all pilots are private pilots).  Jeff's presentation suggests that the private pilot is LESS SAFE.  And he/she may be less safe, but...

The missing piece is the percentage of Lancairs that are flown by private, commercial, or ATP pilots.  Look at this example -- if 100 Lancairs are flown, three-quarters by private pilots, one quarter by commercial pilots, and only one by an ATP, then the picture changes.  Jeff's data would suggest that the private pilots are actually SAFER!

The desired conclusion -- are private pilots MORE or LESS safe than their higher licensed brethren -- cannot be made without this missing information.

Jeff, keep up the good work.  We should all be paying attention.

-- Rob Wolf
Commercial Pilot
500 hours total
Zero hours in Lancairs
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