Mailing List lml@lancaironline.net Message #37007
From: Tom Gourley <tom.gourley@verizon.net>
Sender: <marv@lancaironline.net>
Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Safety statistics and other mythology
Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 17:25:44 -0400
To: <lml>
Mike Easley wrote:
 
"Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in my mind is very personal.  Does every Lancair pilot realize they are capable of making a decision that will kill them and their passengers?"
 
"I tell that story not to pat myself on the back, but to point out how easy it is to talk ourselves into something that common sense says is ridiculously stupid."
 
Excellent points Mike.  A couple of weeks ago I was at the Oregon International Airshow when a Hawker Hunter went down in a Hillsboro neighborhood killing the pilot, Bob Guilford.  By all accounts Mr. Guilford was an accomplished warbird pilot, and an FAA Authorized Instructor for the Hawker Hunter.  I take that to mean that he was very experienced and well trained, especially in the Hunter.  Yet, something went terribly wrong, and in a very short period of time.  Did Mr. Guilford make one or more bad decisions in the last 30 to 60 seconds of that flight?  I don't know.  It's easy to ask ourselves, "Why didn't he turn the other way?"  Or, "Why didn't he put it down in that open field he flew over?"  In hindsight, sitting safely on the ground, we can look at the flight path and point out better options, but would any of us have done any better at the time?  Would I have done any better?  How could I expect to do better than a pilot with more experience and training than me?  That last question is the one that worries me.  Am I going to give up flying becaue of it?  No.  But it will stay with me and maybe it will help me make better decisions.
 
Tom Gourley
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, August 02, 2006 8:50 PM
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety statistics and other mythology

Scott,
 
You make some very interesting points.
 
Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in my mind is very personal.  Does every Lancair pilot realize they are capable of making a decision that will kill them and their passengers?
 
If you read the statistics and say, "that won't happen to me, I'm a smart guy." then you are setting yourself up for disaster.  These dead pilots were smart people.  Smart people can make some really stupid decisions, period.  If you don't operate with that understanding, you could make Jeff Edwards' pie chart next year at OSH.
 
A personal story.  I recently was flying back from Provo to Colorado Springs.  A cold front had settled over the Rockies and low clouds and rain were everywhere.  I had to get home.  My kids had to get home.  I took off from Provo, worked my way to Gunnison.  I was staring at a wall of clouds, rain and granite.  My MX20 showed terrain clearance, a narrow path through the mountain pass.  Black on the MX20 means you have at least 1,000 feet of terrain clearance.  For just a split second, my type A brain thought, "if you just stay over the black you won't hit anything, right?"
 
For a moment in time, relatively smart Mike was about to do something really stupid.  I hung a 180, went back to Montrose and rented a car to get back home.  Live to fly another day.  I tell that story not to pat myself on the back, but to point out how easy it is to talk ourselves into something that common sense says is ridiculously stupid.
 
Mike Easley
Colorado Springs
Subscribe (FEED) Subscribe (DIGEST) Subscribe (INDEX) Unsubscribe Mail to Listmaster