X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml Date: Fri, 04 Aug 2006 17:25:44 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from vms046pub.verizon.net ([206.46.252.46] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.1c.2) with ESMTP id 1341055 for lml@lancaironline.net; Fri, 04 Aug 2006 01:54:00 -0400 Received: from jacky0da39824a ([71.111.167.26]) by vms046.mailsrvcs.net (Sun Java System Messaging Server 6.2-4.02 (built Sep 9 2005)) with ESMTPA id <0J3G005O0LPXVM0K@vms046.mailsrvcs.net> for lml@lancaironline.net; Fri, 04 Aug 2006 00:54:00 -0500 (CDT) X-Original-Date: Thu, 03 Aug 2006 22:53:40 -0700 From: "Tom Gourley" Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Safety statistics and other mythology X-Original-To: "Lancair Mailing List" Reply-to: "Tom Gourley" X-Original-Message-id: <00bb01c6b78a$56a176f0$670610ac@jacky0da39824a> MIME-version: 1.0 X-MIMEOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.2869 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.2869 Content-type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_00B8_01C6B74F.A9AA0870" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-priority: Normal References: This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_00B8_01C6B74F.A9AA0870 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Mike Easley wrote: "Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in my mind = is very personal. Does every Lancair pilot realize they are capable of = making a decision that will kill them and their passengers?" "I tell that story not to pat myself on the back, but to point out how = easy it is to talk ourselves into something that common sense says is = ridiculously stupid." Excellent points Mike. A couple of weeks ago I was at the Oregon = International Airshow when a Hawker Hunter went down in a Hillsboro = neighborhood killing the pilot, Bob Guilford. By all accounts Mr. = Guilford was an accomplished warbird pilot, and an FAA Authorized = Instructor for the Hawker Hunter. I take that to mean that he was very = experienced and well trained, especially in the Hunter. Yet, something = went terribly wrong, and in a very short period of time. Did Mr. = Guilford make one or more bad decisions in the last 30 to 60 seconds of = that flight? I don't know. It's easy to ask ourselves, "Why didn't he = turn the other way?" Or, "Why didn't he put it down in that open field = he flew over?" In hindsight, sitting safely on the ground, we can look = at the flight path and point out better options, but would any of us = have done any better at the time? Would I have done any better? How = could I expect to do better than a pilot with more experience and = training than me? That last question is the one that worries me. Am I = going to give up flying becaue of it? No. But it will stay with me and = maybe it will help me make better decisions. Tom Gourley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: MikeEasley@aol.com=20 To: Lancair Mailing List=20 Sent: Wednesday, August 02, 2006 8:50 PM Subject: [LML] Re: Safety statistics and other mythology Scott, You make some very interesting points. Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in my = mind is very personal. Does every Lancair pilot realize they are = capable of making a decision that will kill them and their passengers? If you read the statistics and say, "that won't happen to me, I'm a = smart guy." then you are setting yourself up for disaster. These dead = pilots were smart people. Smart people can make some really stupid = decisions, period. If you don't operate with that understanding, you = could make Jeff Edwards' pie chart next year at OSH. A personal story. I recently was flying back from Provo to Colorado = Springs. A cold front had settled over the Rockies and low clouds and = rain were everywhere. I had to get home. My kids had to get home. I = took off from Provo, worked my way to Gunnison. I was staring at a wall = of clouds, rain and granite. My MX20 showed terrain clearance, a narrow = path through the mountain pass. Black on the MX20 means you have at = least 1,000 feet of terrain clearance. For just a split second, my type = A brain thought, "if you just stay over the black you won't hit = anything, right?" For a moment in time, relatively smart Mike was about to do something = really stupid. I hung a 180, went back to Montrose and rented a car to = get back home. Live to fly another day. I tell that story not to pat = myself on the back, but to point out how easy it is to talk ourselves = into something that common sense says is ridiculously stupid. Mike Easley Colorado Springs ------=_NextPart_000_00B8_01C6B74F.A9AA0870 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Mike Easley wrote:
 
"Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in my = mind is=20 very personal.  Does every Lancair pilot realize they are capable = of making=20 a decision that will kill them and their passengers?"
 
"I tell that story not to pat myself on the back, but to point out = how easy=20 it is to talk ourselves into something that common sense says is = ridiculously=20 stupid."
 
Excellent points Mike.  A couple of weeks ago I was at = the Oregon=20 International Airshow when a Hawker Hunter went down in a Hillsboro = neighborhood killing the pilot, Bob Guilford.  By all accounts = Mr.=20 Guilford was an accomplished warbird pilot, and an FAA Authorized=20 Instructor for the Hawker Hunter.  I take that to mean that he was = very=20 experienced and well trained, especially in the Hunter.  Yet, = something=20 went terribly wrong, and in a very short period of time.  Did Mr. = Guilford=20 make one or more bad decisions in the last 30 to 60 seconds of that=20 flight?  I don't know.  It's easy to ask ourselves, "Why = didn't=20 he turn the other way?"  Or, "Why didn't he put it down in that = open field=20 he flew over?"  In hindsight, sitting safely on the ground, we = can=20 look at the flight path and point out better options, but would any = of us=20 have done any better at the time?  Would I have done any = better?  How=20 could I expect to do better than a pilot with more experience and = training than=20 me?  That last question is the one that worries me.  Am I = going to=20 give up flying becaue of it?  No.  But it will stay with me = and maybe=20 it will help me make better decisions.
 
Tom Gourley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 MikeEasley@aol.com
Sent: Wednesday, August 02, = 2006 8:50=20 PM
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety = statistics and=20 other mythology

Scott,
 
You make some very interesting points.
 
Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in = my mind=20 is very personal.  Does every Lancair pilot realize they are = capable of=20 making a decision that will kill them and their passengers?
 
If you read the statistics and say, "that won't happen to me, I'm = a smart=20 guy." then you are setting yourself up for disaster.  These dead = pilots=20 were smart people.  Smart people can make some really stupid = decisions,=20 period.  If you don't operate with that understanding, you could = make=20 Jeff Edwards' pie chart next year at OSH.
 
A personal story.  I recently was flying back from Provo to = Colorado=20 Springs.  A cold front had settled over the Rockies and low = clouds and=20 rain were everywhere.  I had to get home.  My kids had to = get=20 home.  I took off from Provo, worked my way to Gunnison.  I = was=20 staring at a wall of clouds, rain and granite.  My MX20 showed = terrain=20 clearance, a narrow path through the mountain pass.  Black on the = MX20=20 means you have at least 1,000 feet of terrain clearance.  For = just a=20 split second, my type A brain thought, "if you just stay over the = black you=20 won't hit anything, right?"
 
For a moment in time, relatively smart Mike was about to do = something=20 really stupid.  I hung a 180, went back to Montrose and rented a = car to=20 get back home.  Live to fly another day.  I tell that story = not to=20 pat myself on the back, but to point out how easy it is to talk = ourselves into=20 something that common sense says is ridiculously stupid.
 
Mike Easley
Colorado Springs
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