Listers,

 

All this talk of LOBO and stuff.  Gets a little old here.

 

There is a pretty easy statistic to do on membership in one group or another having the upper hand on accident safety.  IT is called the chi squared test.  It would take about oh, maybe, 0.3 seconds of CPU time to determine since the data would be a categorical result- i.e. yes or no on the accident, yes or no on membership.  There are two arms of the testing result- one would be the statistical significance, or p value being less than 0.05, the other is the so called non-inferiority test.  The actual numbers of members in each group may not be high enough to be a valid study- the so called power of the test.  Whether or not any of this matters hinges on the fact that the statistics can’t measure whether there are changes in behavior and methodology of making in air decision that might affect the ultimate fate of the flight.  For example, folks who put their seatbelt on are shown to be safer simply because of the fact they are reinforcing safety as part of the fabric of the flying experience.  That act does not imply they are better pilots, but their actions at that time move the subsequent actions closer to a safer ideal behavior.  Folks who join safety organizations like LOBO probably put their best foot forward from the git go, but that is not a comment on individual flying skills, perhaps a better mindset on safety.

 

Michael Smith,

LNC4 950TT