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Chatfield S. Daniel wrote:
My post was not meant to predict the failure of these systems. I spoke
from a mathematic prospective of probability...you know combinations and
permutations. If the probability of one thing happening is 1% and the
probability of another is also 1%, the probability of both happening is
1% X 1% or .01%. Math is an exact science...usually.
Math is ALWAYS an exact science, but application of math requires a bit more insight than multiplying two numbers. No one is questioning your math, what people are questioning is your application of math. You are applying the math of two INDEPENDENT and RANDOM events happening at the same time. What I and others are pointing out are that the two events may not be completely independent of each other and there may be links that change the probability of the second event happening after the first one happens.
Regards,
Hamid
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