Mailing List flyrotary@lancaironline.net Message #22950
From: Dale Rogers <dale.r@cox.net>
Subject: [FlyRotary] Re: [Fwd: COZY: Rotary risks]
Date: Thu, 2 Jun 2005 9:14:01 -0400
To: Rotary motors in aircraft <flyrotary@lancaironline.net>
I think you folks are being to hard on Al Wick.  He apparently makes his living doing risk analysis; and like the workman who has only one tool - say, a hammer - everything looks like a nail.  The problem with his analysis is the same as with all statistical analysis: (1) how one selects the data to be used, (2) grouping unlike samples together, and (3) generalizing from too small a sample.

Since - at this point - every installation is in some way unique, the failure *rates* are meaningless.  One can pretty much ignore his pronouncements - except as they apply to specific components, rather than the whole system.

Dale R.

Dale Mahan <dalemahan@charter.net> wrote:

Bob White wrote:

>I've got facts that might save your life.  You guys are taking a lot of
>risks.  I know what they are, but I'm too busy to tell you right now.
>
>Give me a break!
>
>Bob W.
>
[Huge Snip]  

Yeah, I'm out to save lives too, but I don't have the time - nice thoughts.  When do I attain "true enlightenment"  from the single source of "vast eternal kozmik trooths" about the risks of rotary engines?  I can hardly wait, but the "guru" doesn't have the time.

Best,

Dale  



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