In a message dated 12/24/2006 2:39:18 P.M. Central Standard Time,
brent@regandesigns.com writes:
Scott,
Chelton (formerly Sierra Flight Systems) wasn't "lured" into the experimental
market, they started in the experimental market over 8 years ago. Their
primary market now is retrofit as is evidenced by their ~500 STCs. Retrofit is
a much larger market than new aircraft but you need an STC for each
installation, a 1M$- 5M$ proposition, so the barriers to entry are quite high.
That is why Garmin focuses on the manufacturers where the manufacturers handle
the STC leg work. Selling to retrofit, or experimental, takes many times
the support effort per sale. It is one thing to justify comprehensive customer
support when you have a relatively simple device (handheld GPS) that you have
sold 500K units and quite another to justify initial engineering, STC efforts
and comprehensive customer support for a complex system that you may
sell a couple hundred a year. With Garmin making all their money in the
consumer markets it makes the retrofit and experimental look even more
obscure. Garmin has just started climbing the barriers to the retrofit market
while Chelton sits comfortably on the other side. Then there is the liability.
At least when you are selling to a manufacturer you have an insulating layer,
but when you are selling to the end user.... Hamid is right, the bean
counters won't freely tolerate retrograde expansion once the numbers come
in.
Of course I could be wrong. Garmin could be making a strategic move
on Chelton in response to Chelton winning OEM contracts (Bell and others) with
their new 10.4 inch IDU. It will be interesting to
watch.
Brent,
I guess it depends on one's perspective. SFS/Chelton abandoned the
experimental market for some time before returning to it - I am sure that one of
the reasons was that indeed D2 would be handling the support. There is
every reason to infer from your arguments (and Hamid's) that Chelton will
abandon the experimental market once again when they realize that it may have
been the support side costs that brought down D2.
I would also guess that Garmin now has a very favorable position with the
FAA relative to all the products it has successfully delivered to the aviation
community - even if it has gone out of the house for some products and
components (UPS, SIRF, etc). Having control over interconnected avionics
is certainly a positive and can reduce costs on newly introduced
components. Of course, Garmin does not directly support the end user since
it has a large number of avionics shops to take care of that function.
Chelton may be in for a surprise when it takes on the tasks that D2 was
performing.
Garmin has vaulted the OEM, retrofit and experimental quite handily
with all its panel mount avionics. One can find them everywhere.
Admittedly, it would seem much more difficult to obtain STCs for one box that
does everything but eat (DEBE) than ones that serve narrower objectives.
Garmin sold the 430/530 to "experimenters" (in addition to
certificated avionics shops) shortly after the FAA did not require an
FAA signoff for each "/G" installation.
Support aside, generally, high tech items have high R&D costs
and low reproduction costs, especially if the hardware components come from
certain overseas countries. Also, one of the ways to lower the R&D
costs is to spread them over different products in the same line. These
days, the big difference is in the software - high development costs, almost
zero reproduction costs and controllable maintenance costs if somebody else is
on the front line.
What surprises me is that fancy avionics developers haven't figured out a
way to charge yearly for "maintenance". For example, turning
over database updating to Jepp cost Garmin a continuing income
pipeline after the original GPS products were sold. Of course, maybe I
just can't get my head out of mainframe software business practices.
Oh well, sorry to see D2 crumble. Kirk and his skilled staff
should be able to find positions in the industry. Good luck to
Chelton. And certainly, good luck to the D2/Chelton customers.
Scott