X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Wed, 02 Aug 2006 23:50:36 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from imo-m21.mx.aol.com ([64.12.137.2] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.1c.2) with ESMTP id 1333266 for lml@lancaironline.net; Wed, 02 Aug 2006 08:31:37 -0400 Received-SPF: pass receiver=logan.com; client-ip=64.12.137.2; envelope-from=MikeEasley@aol.com Received: from MikeEasley@aol.com by imo-m21.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v38_r7.6.) id q.c01.171f3e (48552) for ; Wed, 2 Aug 2006 08:30:49 -0400 (EDT) From: MikeEasley@aol.com X-Original-Message-ID: X-Original-Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2006 08:30:49 EDT Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Safety statistics and other mythology X-Original-To: lml@lancaironline.net MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="-----------------------------1154521849" X-Mailer: 9.0 Security Edition for Windows sub 5330 X-Spam-Flag: NO -------------------------------1154521849 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Scott, You make some very interesting points. Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in my mind is very personal. Does every Lancair pilot realize they are capable of making a decision that will kill them and their passengers? If you read the statistics and say, "that won't happen to me, I'm a smart guy." then you are setting yourself up for disaster. These dead pilots were smart people. Smart people can make some really stupid decisions, period. If you don't operate with that understanding, you could make Jeff Edwards' pie chart next year at OSH. A personal story. I recently was flying back from Provo to Colorado Springs. A cold front had settled over the Rockies and low clouds and rain were everywhere. I had to get home. My kids had to get home. I took off from Provo, worked my way to Gunnison. I was staring at a wall of clouds, rain and granite. My MX20 showed terrain clearance, a narrow path through the mountain pass. Black on the MX20 means you have at least 1,000 feet of terrain clearance. For just a split second, my type A brain thought, "if you just stay over the black you won't hit anything, right?" For a moment in time, relatively smart Mike was about to do something really stupid. I hung a 180, went back to Montrose and rented a car to get back home. Live to fly another day. I tell that story not to pat myself on the back, but to point out how easy it is to talk ourselves into something that common sense says is ridiculously stupid. Mike Easley Colorado Springs -------------------------------1154521849 Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Scott,

You make some very interesting points.

Regardless of how you analyze the statistics, the real issue in my mind= is=20 very personal. Does every Lancair pilot realize they are capable of ma= king=20 a decision that will kill them and their passengers?

If you read the statistics and say, "that won't happen to me, I'm a sma= rt=20 guy." then you are setting yourself up for disaster. These dead pilots= =20 were smart people. Smart people can make some really stupid decisions,= =20 period. If you don't operate with that understanding, you could make J= eff=20 Edwards' pie chart next year at OSH.

A personal story. I recently was flying back from Provo to Colora= do=20 Springs. A cold front had settled over the Rockies and low clouds and=20= rain=20 were everywhere. I had to get home. My kids had to get home.&nbs= p; I=20 took off from Provo, worked my way to Gunnison. I was staring at a wal= l of=20 clouds, rain and granite. My MX20 showed terrain clearance, a narrow p= ath=20 through the mountain pass. Black on the MX20 means you have at least 1= ,000=20 feet of terrain clearance. For just a split second, my type A brain=20 thought, "if you just stay over the black you won't hit anything, right?"

For a moment in time, relatively smart Mike was about to do something=20 really stupid. I hung a 180, went back to Montrose and rented a car to= get=20 back home. Live to fly another day. I tell that story not to pat= =20 myself on the back, but to point out how easy it is to talk ourselves into=20 something that common sense says is ridiculously stupid.

Mike Easley

Colorado Springs

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