Message-ID: <3788D578.D7D6E03E@regandesigns.com>
Date: Sun, 11 Jul 1999 10:33:44 -0700
From: Brent Regan <brent@regandesigns.com>
To: lancair.list@olsusa.com
Subject: Re:Engines
References: <19990711040154.AAA27489@truman.olsusa.com>
Mime-Version: 1.0

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Bill's comments about "feeding the dinosaurs" are spot on, but the fantasy
of an inexpensive, high performance engine is just that. The markets are
too small, the development costs are too high, and the liability is too
great to make it a possibility. Suppose it  takes $10M (low estimate) to
develop and certify a new engine (a jet fuel burning, 400 hp, 500 pound
system with a 30K foot critical altitude). Over 5 years you might sell
1000 engines. With cost of money factored in, that is $15K PER ENGINE. If
you were really good, you could build each engine for another $15K
(parts and labor). Add a 40% gross margin and you are at $50K. Now add
warranty reserve, liability reserve, world wide training and support. Spending
$150 to $200 per installed horsepower is about right. The GA market doesn't
have the volumes required to reduce the costs by an order of magnitude to
automobile levels.

Until some market perturbation comes along, like a war or an av gas shortage
or both, the high performance aircraft engine will continue to obey the laws
of the market and will always obey the laws of physics. The bulk of the
AGATE $s will end up in the pockets of the usual suspects, and be used to
make minor advances in existing technology (with a few notable exceptions).

FYI, in the everything old is new again category the Zoche engine is
virtually identical to an engine designed at Continental in the mid 70s
and the Orenda engine first flew in 1986. My favorite is that a 700 Hp
diesel aircraft engine was making regular flights across the Atlantic in
the 1930's! Holly Junkers Jumo, Batman!

In the mid 80s I was involved in an (unsuccessful) effort to buy the
Stratified Charge Rotary Combustion Engine technology from Curtis Wright.
I believe that the "what the market needs" requirements have remained the
same since then. That is a Jet A burning 500 to 750 Hp engine with a .32
BSFC and a FL400 service ceiling with an operation cost of %50 that of a
turbine engine.

I buy "farm diesel" for my tractor at about $0.85 per gallon (no road tax)
which is about $0.13 a pound. Running 450 Hp in my Lancair would put my
cruise at around 330 KTAS at FL240 and cost $18/hour in fuel or $0.055/ KM.
Currently I consume $40/hour at 275 KTAS or $0.15 per mile. 20% faster at
1/3 the cost. Now there are some numbers I like ;)

Anybody out there got a spare $10M?? I'm ready to start designing.

Regards
Brent Regan

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