X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2011 07:40:59 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from mail-fx0-f52.google.com ([209.85.161.52] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.4.1) with ESMTPS id 5091874 for lml@lancaironline.net; Sun, 14 Aug 2011 15:59:10 -0400 Received-SPF: pass receiver=logan.com; client-ip=209.85.161.52; envelope-from=indigoaviation@gmail.com Received: by fxd18 with SMTP id 18so3199445fxd.25 for ; Sun, 14 Aug 2011 12:58:33 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 Received: by 10.223.77.79 with SMTP id f15mr4341415fak.148.1313351913474; Sun, 14 Aug 2011 12:58:33 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 10.223.143.23 with HTTP; Sun, 14 Aug 2011 12:58:33 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: X-Original-Date: Sun, 14 Aug 2011 15:58:33 -0400 X-Original-Message-ID: Subject: Re: [LML] hubris From: swaid rahn X-Original-To: Lancair Mailing List Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=0015174c18d6448bcb04aa7c925d --0015174c18d6448bcb04aa7c925d Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Bill, I don't think i want to fly anymore! Swaid On Sun, Aug 14, 2011 at 9:27 AM, William Miller wrote: > Jeff, > Re: CEN09FA267 a Cirrus...and CHI07FA183 a Meridian > > Reading these accident reports, these guys were determined to get there > (-itis), or die. 200 foot overcast takeoff in a single engine airplane? > How's the chute going to help when you hit that unlit tower you ignored i= n > the NOTAM? Repeated challenge, after ATC warnings, of heavy thunderstorm= s > and freezing level? What was their preflight plan if the thunderstorm did > their usual bad stuff? None! > There are reasons to die in airplanes, but in my experience, should > usually involve fighting to defend your homeland and family, not to > rendezvous with a rental car or hotel reservation. I wonder how many of > these guys have died for Hertz or Hilton? > My old boss used to ask if we "had seen any red stars on the other > airplanes or ships out there", and then proceed to inquire why this missi= on > justified such a high risk. A sign at KIWS says "if you feel this > uncomfortable in this briefing room, now, what makes you think it will ge= t > better, when you are out there in the klag?" Do you see any "Red Stars" o= ut > there? > I also see the same sequence, herein, as we discussed in the LOBO brief = at > OSH. Most of us are unaware how dependent we are on spatial mapping of ou= r > environment and, conversely, how extreme the confusion, when it fails. Th= is > is because our spatial sense is so good, it hardly ever fails us. > We also forget (or may have never seen) how confusing things are when ou= r > expected sequence of events, comes unglued. Have you practiced your > departure/spin recovery in a thunderstorm? Or even VMC with an instructor= ? > How about with ice on the prop and wing, and a failed pitot static system= ? > How's that going to work out fer ya? How long does it take you to sort ou= t > which attitude is right, even with redundancy? Do you think this airplane > might get going real real fast, if you accidentally align the velocity > vector with the gravity vector at full power. It does.... much faster tha= n > the unprepared victim can process it: > In my quick back of the envelope calculation, add 2200 Horsepower to > your existing 350! > Convert[(g 3000 Pound 240 Knot), Horsepower] > Do you think reducing power and speed-brakes will help here? Whoops... > there went my cabin pressure? Pop goes the left ear! Why is everything > spinning (baro-corrioliseffect) ? > It was not what we expected, so we have to recognize, disconnect from th= e > former expectation, and then solve a new problem with a new plan. Autopil= ot > complexity worsens this. Lack of simulators or instructors, familiar with > the kill zone, frustrates this. Single point (or single technology) attit= ude > failures really set you up for this. I retain my vacuum system and it sav= ed > me again last month. Did you know you cannot find the pitot heat switch o= r > hit the terrain map button in severe turbulence? That's why Garmin displa= ys > terrain warning windows automatically, but it's usually too late. > We had this debate over many iterations in US Naval fighters, with a lot > more engineering and flight test expertise, than we have access to here. > Even in those arguments, there was similar confusion of redundancy, with > relative reliability, robustness, elegance, standards, appearance, etc,et= c. > There were equally strong disagreements in that community. But, I think y= ou > will still see those boring, spinning masses, in those airplanes, as > backup. > If we recognize the boundaries and limitations of our aircraft, our > advanced systems, our training, and ourselves, we can avoid looking reall= y > stupid, as in these examples. Also the wide field, splattering of lunch, = and > parts, under the terminal descent, is pleasantly avoided. > There is a serious debate in flight test, about whether we can even > encompass an envelope of this complexity, in our flight tests. Thereafter= , > it is just so easy to have overconfidence and have complacency slowly dri= ft > in, over many successful near misses. Reread the Challenger mishap report= . > It's not just general, or experimental aviation, that's subject to this > hazard. > Y'all be careful out there! > Bill Miller > > What Rogers did not highlight was the fact the vehicle was never > certified to operate in temperatures that low. The O-rings, as well as ma= ny > other critical components, had no test data to support any expectation of= a > successful launch in such conditions. Bob Ebeling from Thiokol gave this > severely succinct analysis: > "we=92re only qualified to 40 degrees ...=91what business does anyone ev= en > have thinking about 18 degrees, we=92re in no man=92s land > --=20 Swaid L. Rahn Indigo Aviation, Inc. 940 Mock Road Springfield, Ga. 31329 Cell 912.655.0966 --0015174c18d6448bcb04aa7c925d Content-Type: text/html; charset=windows-1252 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Bill, I don't think i want to fly anymore!
Swaid

On Sun, Aug 14, 2011 at 9:27 AM, William Miller = <cwfmd@yahoo.com> wrote:
<= /tbody>
Jeff,
Re:=A0CEN= 09FA267 a Cirrus...and CHI07FA183 a Meridian
Reading these accident reports, these guys were determined to get ther= e (-itis), or die. 200 foot overcast takeoff in a single engine airplane? H= ow's the chute going to help when you hit that unlit tower you ignored = in the NOTAM? =A0Repeated challenge, after ATC warnings, of heavy thunderst= orms and freezing level? What was their preflight plan if the thunderstorm = did their usual bad stuff? None!
=A0There are reasons to die in airplanes, but in my experience, should= usually involve fighting to defend your homeland and family, not to rendez= vous with a rental car or hotel reservation. I wonder how many of these guy= s have died for Hertz or Hilton?
=A0My old boss used to ask if we "had seen any red stars on the o= ther airplanes or ships out there", and then proceed to inquire why th= is mission justified such a high risk. A sign at KIWS says "if you fee= l this uncomfortable in this briefing room, now, what makes you think it wi= ll get better, when you are out there in the klag?" Do you see any &qu= ot;Red Stars" out there?=20
=A0I also see the same sequence, herein, as we discussed in the LOBO b= rief at OSH. Most of us are unaware how dependent we are on spatial mapping= of our environment and, conversely, how extreme the confusion, when it fai= ls. This is because our spatial sense is so good, it hardly ever fails us.<= /div>
=A0We also forget (or may have never seen) how confusing things are wh= en our expected sequence of events, comes unglued. Have you practiced your = departure/spin recovery in a thunderstorm? Or even VMC with an instructor? = How about with ice on the prop and wing, and a failed pitot static system? = How's that going to work out fer ya? How long does it take you to sort = out which attitude is right, even with redundancy? Do you think this airpla= ne might get going real real fast, if you accidentally align the velocity v= ector with the gravity vector at full power. It does.... much faster than t= he unprepared victim can process it:
=A0In my quick back of the envelope calculation, add =A02200 Horsepower=A0to your = existing 350! =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 = =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0= =A0Convert[(g 3000 = Pound 240 Knot), Horsepower]=A0
Do you think r= educing power and speed-brakes will help here? =A0Whoops... there went my c= abin pressure? Pop goes the left ear! Why is everything spinning (baro-corriolis effect) ?
=A0It was not what we expected, so we have to recognize, disconnect fr= om the former expectation, and then solve a new problem with a new plan. Au= topilot complexity worsens this. Lack of simulators or instructors, familia= r with the kill zone, frustrates this. Single point (or single technology) = attitude failures really set you up for this. I retain my vacuum system and= it saved me again last month. Did you know you cannot find the pitot heat = switch or hit the terrain map button in severe turbulence? That's why G= armin displays terrain warning windows automatically, but it's usually = too late.
=A0We had this debate over many iterations in US Naval fighters, with = a lot more engineering and flight test expertise, than we have access to he= re. Even in those arguments, there was similar confusion of redundancy, wit= h relative reliability, robustness, elegance, standards, appearance, etc,et= c. There were equally strong disagreements in that community. But, I think = you will still see those boring, spinning masses, in those airplanes, as ba= ckup.=A0
=A0If we recognize the boundaries and limitations of our aircraft, our= advanced systems, our training, and ourselves, we can avoid looking really= stupid, as in these examples. Also the wide field, splattering of lunch, a= nd parts, under the terminal descent, is pleasantly avoided.=A0
There is a serious debate in flight test, about whether we can even en= compass an envelope of this complexity, in our flight tests. Thereafter, it= is just so easy to have overconfidence and have complacency slowly drift i= n, over many successful near misses. Reread the Challenger mishap report. It's not just general, or experimental aviation= , that's subject to this hazard.=A0
Y'all be careful out there!
Bill Miller

What Rogers did no= t highlight was the fact the vehicle was never certified to operate in temp= eratures that low. The O-rings, as well as many other critical components, = had no test data to support any expectation of a successful launch in such = conditions. Bob Ebeling from Thiokol gave this severely succinct analysis:<= /p>

= "we=92re only qualified to 40 degrees ...=91what business does anyone = even have thinking about 18 degrees, we=92re in no man=92s land



--
Swaid L.= Rahn
Indigo Aviation, Inc.
940 Mock Road
Springfield, Ga. 31329 Cell 912.655.0966


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