X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Sun, 14 Aug 2011 09:27:37 -0400 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from nm7.access.bullet.mail.mud.yahoo.com ([66.94.237.208] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.4.1) with SMTP id 5091187 for lml@lancaironline.net; Sat, 13 Aug 2011 16:06:06 -0400 Received-SPF: none receiver=logan.com; client-ip=66.94.237.208; envelope-from=cwfmd@yahoo.com Received: from [66.94.237.127] by nm7.access.bullet.mail.mud.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 13 Aug 2011 20:05:31 -0000 Received: from [66.94.237.122] by tm2.access.bullet.mail.mud.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 13 Aug 2011 20:05:31 -0000 Received: from [127.0.0.1] by omp1027.access.mail.mud.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 13 Aug 2011 20:05:31 -0000 X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: ymail-3 X-Yahoo-Newman-Id: 752061.52006.bm@omp1027.access.mail.mud.yahoo.com Received: (qmail 22885 invoked by uid 60001); 13 Aug 2011 20:05:31 -0000 DomainKey-Signature:a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; c=nofws; s=s1024; d=yahoo.com; h=X-YMail-OSG:Received:X-Mailer:Message-ID:Date:From:Subject:To:MIME-Version:Content-Type; b=rbkEk7Gn+jO0wok2aVfMUsi6aTcgg9xrwRVM8Scf6RFZtAtzmi1dinerlQm1C2oA8Fznjqgukn1VIyZlWlHAfFT58Ht36eKCgHvB10XcMSZsbHCYA6A+gnJuFaCgQ8xNVwpYgZ0NtTnyYCrrvYwgF8rCNTPy4X4Wd7NwQuIym94=; X-YMail-OSG: .rH3K3wVM1lGfeXqen0J_IyQQ_eIYErwrQq9gwYtSeJAET0 l72eiR4DW.f80xvNwjHcTovxt9tKE5f6FkN_o7qjkbpAQG3pZfNzM6Odb0AE Yom0oxubgnTgOuAVKcCQpQQ9IF4ktbcGKTaPprwt_ROFYIFH09NYsEBvJ907 j4VXLd1nse0W_Wi7oK.UMwNjtzlNuWMYgASjk8JCwvy6XnFE1F5eJBczT_sN 4TNyIkbnxh6YY_M8lZN4hYhu78HMmmR5Hg9xUGUU59zZJcEEy0im7BJijvB7 VpFOl1mtMCtdpkD80uuk36TnN_r3Ex5ZBnOXMp23W8rVLZ3OJK4r8x2GlzuJ H54KkRhb6sV1MZBRmjZ7tj75zToQge5A1Os5eRKXQZppBpPKxLky_37w3poN 3v4QDtpd.FkDUC0TAsC_Li7RCDL0UgqAq_c_QUpEbhtAbaG45ak3aylHgeR8 UlLa8uwIOJOJ.i22jcXfimSD7ZtQ_AsIzI.Kwi4KSi4jAosVUfT.HAsL.KnH 90pC.4R_El9Fl3XEmPe_UFCRwFLdCLdI- Received: from [75.157.208.187] by web81203.mail.mud.yahoo.com via HTTP; Sat, 13 Aug 2011 13:05:31 PDT X-Mailer: YahooMailClassic/14.0.4 YahooMailWebService/0.8.113.313619 X-Original-Message-ID: <1313265931.22286.YahooMailClassic@web81203.mail.mud.yahoo.com> X-Original-Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2011 13:05:31 -0700 (PDT) From: William Miller Subject: hubris X-Original-To: lml@lancaironline.net MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0-1603822965-1313265931=:22286" --0-1603822965-1313265931=:22286 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Jeff,=20 Re:=C2=A0CEN09FA267 a Cirrus...and CHI07FA183 a Meridian Reading these accident reports, these guys were determined to get there (-i= tis), or die. 200 foot overcast takeoff in a single engine airplane? How's = the chute going to help when you hit that unlit tower you ignored in the NO= TAM? =C2=A0Repeated challenge, after ATC warnings, of heavy thunderstorms a= nd freezing level? What was their preflight plan if the thunderstorm did th= eir usual bad stuff? None!=C2=A0There are reasons to die in airplanes, but = in my experience, should usually involve fighting to defend your homeland a= nd family, not to rendezvous with a rental car=0A or hotel reservation. I w= onder how many of these guys have died for Hertz or Hilton?=C2=A0My old bos= s used to ask if we "had seen any red stars on the other airplanes or ships= out there", and then proceed to inquire why this mission justified such a = high risk. A sign at KIWS says "if you feel this uncomfortable in this brie= fing room, now, what makes you think it will get better, when you are out t= here in the klag?" Do you see any "Red Stars" out there?=C2=A0I also see th= e same sequence, herein, as we discussed in the LOBO brief at OSH. Most of = us are unaware how dependent we are on spatial mapping of=0A our environmen= t and, conversely, how extreme the confusion, when it fails. This is becaus= e our spatial sense is so good, it hardly ever fails us.=C2=A0We also forge= t (or may have never seen) how confusing things are when our expected seque= nce of events, comes unglued. Have you practiced your departure/spin recove= ry in a thunderstorm? Or even VMC with an instructor? How about with ice on= the prop and wing, and a failed pitot static system? How's that going to w= ork out fer ya? How long does it take you to sort out which attitude is rig= ht, even with redundancy? Do you think this airplane might get going real r= eal fast, if you accidentally align the velocity vector with the gravity ve= ctor at full power. It does.... much faster than the unprepared victim can = process it:=C2=A0In my quick back of the envelope calculation, add =C2=A022= 00 Horsepower=C2=A0to your existing 350! =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0= =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2= =A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 = =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0=C2=A0Convert[(g 3000 Pound 240 Knot), Horsepower]=C2=A0Do you think= reducing power and speed-brakes will help here? =C2=A0Whoops... there went= my cabin pressure? Pop goes the left ear! Why is everything spinning (baro= -corriolis effect) ?=C2=A0It was not what we expected, so we have to recogn= ize, disconnect from the former expectation, and then solve a new problem w= ith a new plan. Autopilot complexity worsens this. Lack=0A of simulators or= instructors, familiar with the kill zone, frustrates this. Single point (o= r single technology) attitude failures really set you up for this. I retain= my vacuum system and it saved me again last month. Did you know you cannot= find the pitot heat switch or hit the terrain map button in severe turbule= nce? That's why Garmin displays terrain warning windows automatically, but = it's usually too late.=C2=A0We had this debate over many iterations in US N= aval fighters, with a lot more engineering and flight test expertise, than = we have access to here. Even in those arguments, there was similar confusio= n of redundancy, with relative reliability, robustness, elegance, standards= , appearance, etc,etc. There were equally strong disagreements in that comm= unity. But, I think you will still see those boring, spinning masses, in th= ose airplanes, as backup.=C2=A0=C2=A0If we recognize the boundaries and lim= itations of our aircraft, our advanced systems, our training, and ourselves, we can avoid looking really stupid, as in these examples. A= lso the wide field, splattering of lunch, and parts, under the terminal des= cent, is pleasantly avoided.=C2=A0There is a serious debate in flight test,= about whether we can even encompass an envelope of this complexity, in our= flight tests. Thereafter, it is just so easy to have overconfidence and ha= ve complacency slowly drift in, over many successful near misses. Reread th= e Challenger mishap report. It's not just general, or=0A experimental aviat= ion, that's subject to this hazard.=C2=A0Y'all be careful out there!Bill Mi= ller What Rogers did not highlight was the fact the vehicle was never certified = to operate in temperatures that low. The O-rings, as well as many other cri= tical components, had no test data to support any expectation of a successf= ul launch in such conditions. Bob Ebeling from Thiokol gave this severely s= uccinct analysis:"we=E2=80=99re only qualified to 40 degrees ...=E2=80=98wh= at business does anyone even have thinking about 18 degrees, we=E2=80=99re = in no man=E2=80=99s=0A land --0-1603822965-1313265931=:22286 Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<= table cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" id=3D"yiv526843167bo= dyDrftID" class=3D"yiv526843167">
Jeff,
R= e: CEN09FA267 a Cirrus...and CHI07FA183 a Meridian

Reading these accident reports, these guys were determined to get the= re (-itis), or die. 200 foot overcast takeoff in a single engine airplane? = How's the chute going to help when you hit that unlit tower you ignored in = the NOTAM?  Repeated challenge, after ATC warnings, of heavy thunderstorms and freezing level? What was their pr= eflight plan if the thunderstorm did their usual bad stuff? None!
 There are reasons to die in airplanes, but in my experience, should = usually involve fighting to defend your homeland and family, not to rendezv= ous with a rental car=0A or hotel reservation. I wonder how many of these g= uys have died for Hertz or Hilton?
 My old boss used to ask = if we "had seen any red stars on the other airplanes or ships out there", a= nd then proceed to inquire why this mission justified such a high risk. A s= ign at KIWS says "if you feel this uncomfortable in this briefing room, now= , what makes you think it will get better, when you are out there in the kl= ag?" Do you see any "Red Stars" out there?
 I also see the same se= quence, herein, as we discussed in the LOBO brief at OSH. Most of us are un= aware how dependent we are on spatial mapping of=0A our environment and, co= nversely, how extreme the confusion, when it fails. This is because our spa= tial sense is so good, it hardly ever fails us.
 We also for= get (or may have never seen) how confusing things are when our expected seq= uence of events, comes unglued. Have you practiced your departure/spin reco= very in a thunderstorm? Or even VMC with an instructor? How about with ice = on the prop and wing, and a failed pitot static system? How's that going to= work out fer ya? How long does it take you to sort out which attitude is r= ight, even with redundancy? Do you think this airplane might get going real= real fast, if you accidentally align the velocity vector with the gravity = vector at full power. It does.... much faster than the unprepared victim ca= n process it:
 In my quick back of the envelope calculation,= add  2200 Horsepower to your existing 350!         &= nbsp;                    =                     &nbs= p;                 C= onvert[(g 3000 Pound 240 Knot), Horsepower] 
corriolis effect) ?
 It was not what we= expected, so we have to recognize, disconnect from the former expectation,= and then solve a new problem with a new plan. Autopilot complexity worsens this. Lack=0A of simulators or instructors, familiar with the kill zone, f= rustrates this. Single point (or single technology) attitude failures reall= y set you up for this. I retain my vacuum system and it saved me again last= month. Did you know you cannot find the pitot heat switch or hit the terra= in map button in severe turbulence? That's why Garmin displays terrain warn= ing windows automatically, but it's usually too late.
 We ha= d this debate over many iterations in US Naval fighters, with a lot more en= gineering and flight test expertise, than we have access to here. Even in t= hose arguments, there was similar confusion of redundancy, with relative re= liability, robustness, elegance, standards, appearance, etc,etc. There were= equally strong disagreements in that community. But, I think you will stil= l see those boring, spinning masses, in those airplanes, as backup. 
 If we recognize the boundaries and limitations of our aircra= ft, our advanced systems, our training, and ourselves, we can avoid looking really= stupid, as in these examples. Also the wide field, splattering of lunch, a= nd parts, under the terminal descent, is pleasantly avoided. 
There is a serious debate in flight test, about whether we can even encom= pass an envelope of this complexity, in our flight tests. Thereafter, it is= just so easy to have overconfidence and have complacency slowly drift in, = over many successful near misses. Reread the Challenger mishap report. = It's not just general, or=0A experimental aviation, that's subject to this = hazard. 
Y'all be careful out there!
Bill Mi= ller

What Rogers did not highlight was the fact the vehicle was never certifi= ed to operate in temperatures that low. The O-rings, as well as many other = critical components, had no test data to support any expectation of a succe= ssful launch in such conditions. Bob Ebeling from Thiokol gave this severel= y succinct analysis:

"we= =E2=80=99re only qualified to 40 degrees ...=E2=80=98what business does any= one even have thinking about 18 degrees, we=E2=80=99re in no man=E2=80=99s= =0A land
--0-1603822965-1313265931=:22286--