X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Received: from mail.theofficenet.com ([65.166.240.5] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 4.3.4) with SMTP id 982045 for flyrotary@lancaironline.net; Thu, 02 Jun 2005 11:14:29 -0400 Received-SPF: none receiver=logan.com; client-ip=65.166.240.5; envelope-from=jackoford@theofficenet.com Received: (qmail 2977 invoked from network); 2 Jun 2005 15:11:38 -0000 Received: from dpc691941229.direcpc.com (HELO jack) (69.19.41.229) by mail.theofficenet.com with SMTP; 2 Jun 2005 15:11:38 -0000 Message-ID: <014b01c56785$761a17e0$6601a8c0@jack> From: "Jack Ford" To: "Rotary motors in aircraft" References: Subject: Re: [FlyRotary] Re: [Fwd: COZY: Rotary risks] Date: Thu, 2 Jun 2005 08:12:08 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0148_01C5674A.C53C9590" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1478 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1478 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0148_01C5674A.C53C9590 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable He didn't post to this list, Buly cross-posted it from the Cozy list. Al doesn't run off at the mouth. When he posts his findings, I'll cross-post if Buly doesn't. He just may have something to add to our thought processes. And yes, he = is a cold-blooded analyst (I like that in a person). Jack Ford ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Echo Lake Fishing Resort (Georges Boucher)=20 To: Rotary motors in aircraft=20 Sent: Thursday, June 02, 2005 7:53 AM Subject: [FlyRotary] Re: [Fwd: COZY: Rotary risks] Re: Al Wick The information on his Website is sensible, what he posted on = our site doesn't seem to be written by the same guy! Maybe he was having = a bad day, annalists usually give a reason for there findings. Georges B. -------Original Message------- From: Rotary motors in aircraft Date: 06/02/05 06:14:49 To: Rotary motors in aircraft Subject: [FlyRotary] Re: [Fwd: COZY: Rotary risks] I think you folks are being to hard on Al Wick. He apparently makes his living doing risk analysis; and like the workman who has only one tool - say, a hammer - everything looks like a nail. The problem with his analysis is the same as with all statistical analysis: (1) how one selects the data to be used, (2) grouping unlike samples together, and (3) generalizing from too small a sample. Since - at this point - every installation is in some way unique, the failure *rates* are meaningless. One can pretty much ignore his pronouncements - except as they apply to specific components, rather than the whole system. Dale R. Dale Mahan wrote: > > Bob White wrote: > > >I've got facts that might save your life. You guys are = taking a lot of > >risks. I know what they are, but I'm too busy to tell you = right now. > > > >Give me a break! > > > >Bob W. > > [Huge Snip] > > Yeah, I'm out to save lives too, but I don't have the time - = nice > thoughts. When do I attain "true enlightenment" from the = single source > of "vast eternal kozmik trooths" about the risks of rotary = engines? I > can hardly wait, but the "guru" doesn't have the time. > > Best, > > Dale >> Homepage: http://www.flyrotary.com/ >> Archive: = http://lancaironline.net/lists/flyrotary/List.html -- No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. Version: 7.0.322 / Virus Database: 267.3.0 - Release Date: = 5/30/2005 .=20 =20 =20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------= ----- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. Version: 7.0.322 / Virus Database: 267.3.0 - Release Date: 5/30/2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------= ----- >> Homepage: http://www.flyrotary.com/ >> Archive: http://lancaironline.net/lists/flyrotary/List.html ------=_NextPart_000_0148_01C5674A.C53C9590 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
He didn't post to this list, Buly cross-posted it from the Cozy = list.
 
Al doesn't run off at the mouth.
 
When he posts his findings, I'll cross-post if Buly doesn't.
 
He just may have something to add to our thought processes. And = yes, he is=20 a cold-blooded analyst (I like that in a person).
 
Jack Ford
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Echo=20 Lake Fishing Resort (Georges Boucher)
Sent: Thursday, June 02, 2005 = 7:53=20 AM
Subject: [FlyRotary] Re: [Fwd: = COZY:=20 Rotary risks]

 Re: Al Wick
The information on his Website is sensible, what he posted = on our=20 site doesn't seem to be written by the same guy! Maybe he was = having a=20 bad day, annalists usually give a reason for there = findings.
Georges B.
 
-------Original=20 Message-------
 
From: Rotary motors in=20 aircraft
Date: = 06/02/05=20 06:14:49
To: Rotary motors in=20 aircraft
Subject: = [FlyRotary]=20 Re: [Fwd: COZY: Rotary risks]
 
I think you folks are being to hard on Al = Wick.  He=20 apparently
makes his living doing risk analysis; and like the = workman
who has only one tool - say, a hammer - everything = looks
like a nail.  The problem with his analysis is = the same=20 as
with all statistical analysis: (1) how one selects the = data
to be used, (2) grouping unlike samples together, and = (3)
generalizing from too small a sample.
 
Since - at this point - every installation is in some = way
unique, the failure *rates* are meaningless.  One = can=20 pretty
much ignore his pronouncements - except as they apply = to
specific components, rather than the whole system.
 
Dale R.
 
Dale Mahan <dalemahan@charter.net>=20 wrote:
>
> Bob White wrote:
>
> >I've got facts that might save your = life.  You=20 guys are taking a lot of
> >risks.  I know what they are, but I'm = too busy=20 to tell you right now.
> >
> >Give me a break!
> >
> >Bob W.
> >
[Huge Snip]
>
> Yeah, I'm out to save lives too, but I don't have the = time -=20 nice
> thoughts.  When do I attain "true=20 enlightenment"  from the single source
> of "vast eternal kozmik trooths" about the risks of = rotary=20 engines?  I
> can hardly wait, but the "guru" doesn't have the = time.
>
> Best,
>
> Dale
 
 
 
 
>>  Homepage:  http://www.flyrotary.com/
>>  Archive:   http://lancai= ronline.net/lists/flyrotary/List.html
 
 
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No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
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No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG=20 Anti-Virus.
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>>  Homepage: =20 http://www.flyrotary.com/
>>  Archive:  =20 = http://lancaironline.net/lists/flyrotary/List.html
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