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Date: Mon, 05 May 2014 17:08:46 -0400
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From: Kevin Stallard <kevin@arilabs.net>
Subject: RE: [LML] Re: P-38's and Legacy Canopys
Thread-Topic: [LML] Re: P-38's and Legacy Canopys
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Hi John,

There are two kinds of data we're talking about here.  Accident statistical=
 data and aerodynamic aircraft performance data.  I'm after the later.

I'm looking for flight data, controllability, stability, etc when the canop=
y is open.  Just because the canopy opened prior to a crash doesn't make it=
 the fault of the canopy.

Sure it may have scared the pants off the pilot, but the question is:  Is t=
he airplane flyable with the canopy opened?   We need real, measurable cont=
rollability data.  If the canopy doesn't inhibit the airplanes ability to f=
ly when it is opened, then we shouldn't be blaming the airplane. =20

Sure warning lights and such are helpful, but if the airplane can be shown =
to fly reasonably well with the canopy open don't you think that the soluti=
on to this statistical anomaly would be to include a canopy open event duri=
ng training?  Show the pilot how to turn a canopy open event into a non-eve=
nt?

That's what I want to be able to do....I think that is a more sure way to k=
eep me safe.=20

Thanks
Kevin


________________________________________
From: Lancair Mailing List [lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of John Smith =
[john@jjts.net.au]
Sent: Monday, May 05, 2014 5:11 AM
To: Lancair Mailing List
Subject: [LML] Re: P-38's and Legacy Canopys

A reaction to prior post=85.  "=85=85=85spending a bunch and time and money=
 fix ing a problem that may not exist, we really need to gather data, real =
hard data."

Problem that may not exist=85..?   Really need hard data?

Why don=92t we start at the top of the tree?   3 known fatal events due fli=
ght with an open canopy (at the time that I looked at all this a few months=
 ago); this equates to around 1 in 100,000 take-offs. That=92s appalling. A=
nyone think otherwise?

These events also happen to account for around 10% of Legacy related fatals=
.  If increasing awareness of this possibility and of simple practical proc=
edures and systems to reduce the risk are available, why not do it? I=92m a=
ll ears!

I=92ll be honest =96 the only way I found about what could happen with the =
canopy was when I did my transition training in 2008 with Bob Jeffries in N=
199L =96 if he hadn=92t told me about this, I most likely would have never =
known and consequently wouldn=92t have installed the dual position / latch =
warning system in XTZ before I first flew the aircraft.

And then, it was the public discussion mainly on this forum that followed G=
erry Gould=92s accident that finally yielded reports (and in effect a proce=
dure for) of successful flight and landing with the canopy open. I am very =
grateful that I and others now have the knowledge of what has worked. We ne=
ver had that information as a community before =96 or at least it wasn=92t =
out there for all to benefit from. This accident triggered an immediate upg=
rade of my canopy alarm from a simple warning light to include large red fl=
ashing warnings on both EFIS screens, audible alarm, and writing up canopy =
open procedures (pre-airborne, and post-airborne) into my POH.

A few simple steps get us closer and potentially beyond what I understand t=
o be a minimum GA target for fatal events of 1 in 1,000,000. They are all, =
along with the relative (indicative) benefits, documented in Valin=92s repo=
rt.  Why strive to prevent that very useful information getting out there??

I just wish others who have not survived a canopy open event had been able =
to receive Valin=92s paper before those accidents occurred, and especially =
Gerry Gould who was the pilot of the Legacy that crashed at Geraldton =96 G=
erry was an experienced pilot who used his Legacy routinely to get from =93=
a=94 to =93b=94 for his business in Australia=92s northwest, yet what follo=
wed on 18 September last year started with a simple error. The final report=
 of this accident will be quite comprehensive and I think is about to be re=
leased, but in meantime refer:   http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/invest=
igation_reports/2013/aair/ao-2013-158.aspx


BTW =96 the figure of =93around 1 in 100,000=94 comes from some assumptions=
 below. I accept not "hard research quality data", but given the goal of ge=
tting a feel for the stats on this, I felt the assumptions are probably OK =
for the current purpose. My approach was to assume a pro-rata time introduc=
tion of Legacies over a period of 10 years. In other words, based on number=
s below 35 in Yr 1, another 35 in Yr 2, and other 35 in Yr 3 and so on. Of =
course that=92s not what actually happened, but to get a feel for the risk =
of this event, I think that=92s good enough. Irrespective of what a calcula=
ted risk value might be, 3 fatal events - some or all that could well have =
been avoided with some more broadly available knowledge - is 3 too many.


Event =3D "Flight occurs with canopy unlocked and leads to a fatality"

No. recorded events             3
No. Legacy's flown              350
Years in operation              10
Flight years            1925
Avg. take-off/yr                50
Total take-off to date          96250
Frequency of canopy open fatalties      3.12E-05        REF

This is a "Reference event frequency"(REF) assuming all past events occurre=
d with aircraft / pilots:-
- no alarm system
- critical check lists not used
- abort procedure not acknowldged
- no predefined / rehearsed canopy open flight procedure
- no proven flight procedure "available"


Regards,

John


John N G Smith
Tel / fax:    +61-8-9385-8891
Mobile:      +61-409-372-975
Email:         john@jjts.net.au=