X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2008 19:39:26 -0500 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from imo-m25.mx.aol.com ([64.12.137.6] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.2.10) with ESMTP id 3283426 for lml@lancaironline.net; Sun, 09 Nov 2008 21:04:50 -0500 Received: from VTAILJEFF@aol.com by imo-m25.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v39.1.) id q.c83.24d1c80b (37143) for ; Sun, 9 Nov 2008 21:04:46 -0500 (EST) Received: from webmail-mf05 (webmail-mf05.webmail.aol.com [64.12.88.218]) by cia-ma03.mx.aol.com (v121_r4.6) with ESMTP id MAILCIAMA035-9117491796be88; Sun, 09 Nov 2008 21:04:46 -0500 References: X-Original-To: lml@lancaironline.net Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs X-Original-Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2008 21:04:47 -0500 X-AOL-IP: 71.85.153.156 In-Reply-To: X-MB-Message-Source: WebUI MIME-Version: 1.0 From: vtailjeff@aol.com X-MB-Message-Type: User Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="--------MB_8CB10EFD7676B69_D58_608A_webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com" X-Mailer: AOL Webmail 39598-STANDARD Received: from 71.85.153.156 by webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com (64.12.88.218) with HTTP (WebMailUI); Sun, 09 Nov 2008 21:04:47 -0500 X-Original-Message-Id: <8CB10EFD75B7F93-D58-2E83@webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com> X-Spam-Flag:NO ----------MB_8CB10EFD7676B69_D58_608A_webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Kyrilian, Your points are well taken and we need to address these issues=C2=A0with the= FAA-- it is their data that makes this task impossible. They use our tax do= llars to send us those triennial reports that we must fill out lest we lose=20= our privileges and the darn data it produces is about worthless.=20 Jeff -----Original Message----- From: Kyrilian Dyer To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Sun, 9 Nov 2008 6:10 pm Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Jeff, I agree with your sentiment below, but I don't believe the numbers required=20= to truly make the point are available.=C2=A0 The percentages below are usele= ss if we don't know the number of hours flown and the number of pilots in a=20= given group.=C2=A0 For instance, in your pie chart of accidents by certifica= te, you show that only 1% of Lancair accidents occur with student pilots.= =C2=A0 Are student pilots the safest? A true comparison of private and commercial (or ATP) pilots based on these l= imited data is impossible to make.=C2=A0 There are two unknowns here; the nu= mber of Lancair pilots with a private, commercial, or ATP certificate, and t= he number of Lancair hours (not to be confused with total hours) the pilots=20= in each of those groups fly per year.=C2=A0 Do private and commercial pilots= fly the same number of hours each year in Lancair aircraft?=C2=A0 Even if w= e know the ratio of private to commercial and ATP pilots in the Lancair comm= unity, do we know the number of hours that each group flies.=C2=A0 And the t= otal number of hours is useless--we need Lancair hours to compare the accide= nt rate in Lancairs. Let's compare a bunch of ATPs who fly a few hundred hours as jet captains bu= t only fly five hours each in Lancair aircraft each year with private pilots= flying their Lancairs a hundred hours each year.=C2=A0 Say we look at a gro= up of a hundred private pilots that had twenty accidents and a group of ten=20= ATP jet pilots that had one accident in the same period.=C2=A0 If we didn't=20= know how many pilots were in each group or how much they flew we'd say that=20= the private pilots were twenty times more likely to have been involved in an= accident.=C2=A0 However, if we assume the above flight rates (in Lancairs),= the ATP group would have an accident rate ten times greater. ATP:=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 (1 accident=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 / 10 pilots=C2= =A0=C2=A0 / 5 hours per year) =C2=A0 =3D 0.02 accidents per hour per pilot Private: (20 accidents / 100 pilots /100 hours per year) =3D 0.002 accidents= per hour per pilot Obviously, the numbers above are simply hypothetical, and I would expect, fa= r from reality.=C2=A0 However, it simply shows that without knowing the real= numbers, it's impossible to compare accident rates. You also bring up the relative number of pilots in each group (35% of the US= pilot population is comprised of private pilots).=C2=A0 But how many in eac= h group fly GA?=C2=A0 While many airline pilots fly GA, I'm sure there are m= any that haven't been in a light aircraft since they were private pilots.= =C2=A0 I work with a bunch of very highly qualified experimental test pilots= , most with ATPs and thousands of hours and all with military backgrounds.= =C2=A0 Only a small few fly light aircraft. So are student pilots the safest?=C2=A0 I doubt it.=C2=A0 Let's keep trainin= g, and try to get those hours in type higher (somehow). =C2=A0Cheers, - Kyrilian --- On Sat, 11/8/08, vtailjeff@aol.com wrote: From: vtailjeff@aol.com Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Saturday, November 8, 2008, 10:10 AM Kevin,=20 I am not saying anything. I am just doing the math. Once I have finished the= math I will=C2=A0let everyone know... I did address the hour thing in the o= ther graph. Put the two together and you have a picture. Private pilot + low= time in type=3D higher risk of accident.=20 I agree that training reduces accidents.=C2=A0=C2=A0As I said earlier in my=20= ten recommendations to become a safer pilot is if you are going to spend the= money training you might as well get a new rating. ;)=20 Jeff -----Original Message----- From: Kevin Stallard To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Fri, 7 Nov 2008 5:37 pm Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Jeff, =C2=A0 >While Private Pilot certificates comprise 35% of total U.S. pilot populatio= n.=20 >Private pilots account for almost 55% of the Lancair accident population an= d 48% of the GA accident population =C2=A0 I think you are trying to say is =E2=80=9CIf you only have a Private Pilot c= ertificate, you are more likely to have an accident.=E2=80=9D=C2=A0 And that= you probably mean to imply=20 that if you hold some other advanced rating, that you have a less chance of=20= having an accident. =C2=A0 The propblem is (at least for me) is that 100% of GA accidents are caused by= , well, =C2=A0pilots, and half of those accidents (or thereabouts) are cause= d by folks with higher ratings than a private pilot (according to your numbe= rs). =C2=A0 I=E2=80=99m not convienced that a rating is the thing that is indicative of=20= the likely hood of an having an accident, however, I think that the amount o= f practice and training are, and unfortunalty ratings don=E2=80=99t accuratl= y reflect this quantity.=C2=A0 However, a logbook usually does.=C2=A0=C2=A0=20= Maybe that=E2=80=99s were we need to look. =C2=A0 Kevin =C2=A0 ----------MB_8CB10EFD7676B69_D58_608A_webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Kyrilian,

Your points are well taken and we need to address these issues with the= FAA-- it is their data that makes this task impossible. They use our tax do= llars to send us those triennial reports that we must fill out lest we lose=20= our privileges and the darn data it produces is about worthless.

Jeff


-----Original Message-----
From: Kyrilian Dyer <kyrilian_av@yahoo.com>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Sun, 9 Nov 2008 6:10 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs

Jeff,

I agree with your sentiment below, but I don't believe the numbers required=20= to truly make the point are available.  The percentages below are usele= ss if we don't know the number of hours flown and the number of pilots in a=20= given group.  For instance, in your pie chart of accidents by certifica= te, you show that only 1% of Lancair accidents occur with student pilots.&nb= sp; Are student pilots the safest?

A true comparison of private and commercial (or ATP) pilots based on these l= imited data is impossible to make.  There are two unknowns here; the nu= mber of Lancair pilots with a private, commercial, or ATP certificate, and t= he number of Lancair hours (not to be confused with total hours) the pilots=20= in each of those groups fly per year.  Do private and commercial pilots= fly the same number of hours each year in Lancair aircraft?  Even if w= e know the ratio of private to commercial and ATP pilots in the Lancair comm= unity, do we know the number of hours that each group flies.  And the t= otal number of hours is useless--we need Lancair hours to compare the accide= nt rate in Lancairs.

Let's compare a bunch of ATPs who fly a few hundred hours as jet captains bu= t only fly five hours each in Lancair aircraft each year with private pilots= flying their Lancairs a hundred hours each year.  Say we look at a gro= up of a hundred private pilots that had twenty accidents and a group of ten=20= ATP jet pilots that had one accident in the same period.  If we didn't=20= know how many pilots were in each group or how much they flew we'd say that=20= the private pilots were twenty times more likely to have been involved in an= accident.  However, if we assume the above flight rates (in Lancairs),= the ATP group would have an accident rate ten times greater.

ATP:     (1 accident    / 10 pilots =   / 5 hours per year)   =3D 0.02 accidents per hour per pilot
Private: (20 accidents / 100 pilots /100 hours per year) =3D 0.002 accidents= per hour per pilot

Obviously, the numbers above are simply hypothetical, and I would expect, fa= r from reality.  However, it simply shows that without knowing the real= numbers, it's impossible to compare accident rates.

You also bring up the relative number of pilots in each group (35% of the US= pilot population is comprised of private pilots).  But how many in eac= h group fly GA?  While many airline pilots fly GA, I'm sure there are m= any that haven't been in a light aircraft since they were private pilots.&nb= sp; I work with a bunch of very highly qualified experimental test pilots, m= ost with ATPs and thousands of hours and all with military backgrounds. = ; Only a small few fly light aircraft.

So are student pilots the safest?  I doubt it.  Let's keep trainin= g, and try to get those hours in type higher (somehow).

 Cheers,
- Kyrilian

--- On Sat, 11/8/08, vtailjeff@aol.c= om <vtailjeff@aol.com>= wrote:
From: vtailjeff@ao= l.com <vtailjeff@aol.com>=
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Date: Saturday, November 8, 2008, 10:10 AM

Kevin,

I am not saying anything. I am just doing the math. Once I have finished the= math I will let everyone know... I did address the hour thing in the o= ther graph. Put the two together and you have a picture. Private pilot + low= time in type=3D higher risk of accident.

I agree that training reduces accidents.  As I said earlier in my=20= ten recommendations to become a safer pilot is if you are going to spend the= money training you might as well get a new rating. ;)

Jeff


-----Original Message-----
From: Kevin Stallard <Kevin@arilabs.= net>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Fri, 7 Nov 2008 5:37 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs

Jeff,
 
>While Private Pilo= t certificates comprise 35% of total U.S. pilot population.
>Private pilots acc= ount for almost 55% of the Lancair accident population and 48% of the GA acc= ident population
 
I think you are trying= to say is =E2=80=9CIf you only have a Private Pilot certificate, you are mo= re likely to have an accident.=E2=80=9D  And that you probably mean to=20= imply
that if you hold some=20= other advanced rating, that you have a less chance of having an accident.
 
The propblem is (at le= ast for me) is that 100% of GA accidents are caused by, well,  pilots,=20= and half of those accidents (or thereabouts) are caused by folks with higher= ratings than a private pilot (according to your numbers).
 
I=E2=80=99m not convie= nced that a rating is the thing that is indicative of the likely hood of an=20= having an accident, however, I think that the amount of practice and trainin= g are, and unfortunalty ratings don=E2=80=99t accuratly reflect this quantit= y.  However, a logbook usually does.   Maybe that=E2=80=99s w= ere we need to look.
 
Kevin
 


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