My $.02 concerning Lancair flying and how to make it safer.

 

I would look for a correlation amongst the following:

 

A. Total Time Before beginning to fly Lancairs. (TTB)

B. Quality of Time Before beginning to fly Lancairs  (QTB)

C. Time in type Before the Accident. (TBA) or Without Accident (TWA)

D. Training in Type Before the Accident (TTBA)

E. Pilots' Reluctance to Believe they are not at the highest skill level needed to fly their slick, fast, pretty airplanes (PRB)

 

Reasoning:

 

Low TTB has to be a problem but not necessarily all the problem.  If QTB includes mostly 152, Tomahawk, 172, Cherokee time then that would probably make low TTB  more significant.  Put that together with low TBA and you have a very risky and almost (after the fact) predictable situation.

 

High TTB, with the QTB including Lances, light twins, 182's, Bonanzas, etc. seems to predict a greater chance of success just about regardless of TBA and would indicate that there might have been factors other than just seat time involved.

 

Gathering data on those who have not had accidents might bear this out in a general way.  I know there are some glaring exceptions to this very simple line of thought but that only proves that no one is immune from flawed thought processes or sub-par performance at any given time.

 

I fly a Super ES.  I look at my own log book and see:  800 hours TTB.  QTB included 250 hours in 182's, 100 hours in Piper Lances, with the majority of the earlier hours in 172's and Piper Archers.  TWA is just shy of 1000.  I am sure there are a lot of Lancair drivers out there who have better numbers than these.  I am also sure there are a quite a number who have less than these.

 

Trying to reduce the complexities of aircraft accidents to pure math is, in my simple mind, not only not possible but not all that useful.  A general connection between low time, inadequate, poor or no training (TTBA) and the level of skills necessary to fly whatever plane was crashed is probably the best you can get.  The general conclusion after throwing out the oddball freaky accidents will probably be that high quality, type specific, regularly scheduled training will significantly enhance the Lancair safety numbers.  For that to happen the pilots need to be convinced that training is in theirs and their families' best interests.

 

Pilots tend to have a very high regard for their talents and abilities (the PRB aspect of the issue).  Getting them to realize that, even though they fly that airplane 100+ hours a year, they still need regular training is a big job. Probably more difficult than the training itself.  Stopping someone from doing something that will kill him is impossible when that person does not recognize the danger in the decision/action/situation.

 

I think the intellectual exercise of trying to produce a formula based on some statistics is probably useful at some level.  However, ultimately, the conclusion will be one that we have discussed many times:  training, training, training.  A traveling professional group that could be scheduled by the individual pilot by region would be a big step forward.  Just a thought.  I know I would fly a couple of hundred miles to participate in a day of training periodically.

 

I offer no other solutions. 

 

I realize this has been a somewhat rambling discourse and is probably full of technical mistakes. It is entirely my opinion and I take responsibility for the content.  Flame suit on. 

 

Jim Scales