X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2008 19:39:26 -0500 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from QMTA07.emeryville.ca.mail.comcast.net ([76.96.30.64] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.2.10) with ESMTP id 3283599 for lml@lancaironline.net; Mon, 10 Nov 2008 01:59:18 -0500 Received-SPF: pass receiver=logan.com; client-ip=76.96.30.64; envelope-from=j.hafen@comcast.net Received: from OMTA09.emeryville.ca.mail.comcast.net ([76.96.30.20]) by QMTA07.emeryville.ca.mail.comcast.net with comcast id d3fp1a0080S2fkCA7Jygqj; Mon, 10 Nov 2008 06:58:40 +0000 Received: from [10.0.1.199] ([24.17.80.211]) by OMTA09.emeryville.ca.mail.comcast.net with comcast id dJye1a0044ZZ8qY8VJyerl; Mon, 10 Nov 2008 06:58:40 +0000 X-Authority-Analysis: v=1.0 c=1 a=ouj2ouTfiqEA:10 a=9crasFSzlmEA:10 a=MP_20UxOAAAA:8 a=3oc9M9_CAAAA:8 a=KE2O1H8PWa7-wUAL3qEA:9 a=CJDXze_iERrq2_Ql05AA:7 a=khUQ5GzHVKkSuR2cepk7ixe68xQA:4 a=U8Ie8EnqySEA:10 a=OS7PZEPQ3MUA:10 a=EzXvWhQp4_cA:10 a=hUswqBWy9Q8A:10 a=QMgMR9M9BAsA:10 a=EXBvxSkhjxLvvrBvMxsA:9 a=5_pY3ZSc4bv0C1bWLg4A:7 a=fpcyOoWGEBHuAhYFu1SPi6rc3j8A:4 a=PhNIAhtvteQA:10 a=Sz-0p1zU2dQA:10 User-Agent: Microsoft-Entourage/12.14.0.081024 X-Original-Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2008 22:58:37 -0800 Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs From: John Hafen X-Original-To: Lancair Mailing List X-Original-Message-ID: Thread-Topic: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Thread-Index: AclDAcESMhI8Z9wl5Eyo+Zc2qFnNxQ== In-Reply-To: Mime-version: 1.0 Content-type: multipart/alternative; boundary="B_3309116320_223332" > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. --B_3309116320_223332 Content-type: text/plain; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable Jeff: Thanks for the numbers. Numbers don=B9t lie. They just are. Intelligent people will pay attention, rather than quibble. Keep up the good work. John Hafen On 11/9/08 4:10 PM, "vtailjeff@aol.com" wrote: > Rick, >=20 > You have great points. Unfortunately we spend millions of dollars on the = FAA > data and don't get much bang for the buck. Here is an interesting statist= ic I > did last year on the medical certificate issue for a comment I submitted = the > third class medical NPRM. >=20 > Which group of pilots have fewer per capita medically related accidents? >=20 > a. Pilots with medical certificates >=20 > b. Pilots without medical certificates >=20 > Answer is b. Pilots without medical certificates (glider pilots, balloon > pilots) have fewer medically related accidents. > I asked the aviation medical panel at SNF why Private airplane pilots n= eeded > medical certificates and their answer was that they used this argument to > support the light sport certificate no medical requirement. Unfortunately= they > could not extend the same logic to the third class medical although they = just > upped the third class to five years for those under 40 (but not changing = a > thing for the over 40 crowd). >=20 > Remember it is the FAA and their motto is "it does not have to make sense= " ;) >=20 >=20 > Jeff >=20 >=20 >=20 > -----Original Message----- > From: Rick Titsworth > To: lml@lancaironline.net > Sent: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 8:51 pm > Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs >=20 > All good info. But, as usually, we must be careful with the inferences f= rom > mis-used/mis-applied statistics. > To relate that private pilots make up 35% of the total pilot population a= nd > 48% of GA accidents is pretty useless by itself. > =20 > i.e. What percentage of airline and/or commercial flight accidents are > attributed private pilots? Of course the answer is zero. That=B9s because= the > population of all airline/commercial pilots and the population of all GA > pilots are not the same. Thus, relating the % of GA pilot type accidents= to > the type % of the total pilot population (GA, commercial, and airline) is= on > the surface inconclusive and perhaps mis-leading. > =20 > It could easily be that 60% of all GA pilots are private pilots and when > associated with the 48% private pilot accident statistic above leads to t= he > opposite conclusion that, in aggregate, the private pilots are actually l= ess > likely to be correlated with the accident rate (generally fly in better > weather on local flights, etc). > =20 > I=B9m all for ratings and training =AD but Jeff said =B3food for thought=B2 =AD so = I > couldn=B9t help but comment. > =20 >=20 > From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net > ] On Behalf Of vtailjeff@aol.com > Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 7:09 PM > To: lml@lancaironline.net > Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs > =20 > Here is more food for thought. >=20 > Jeff >=20 >=20 > -----Original Message----- > From: Giffen Marr > To: lml@lancaironline.net > Sent: Wed, 5 Nov 2008 7:07 pm > Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs > Jeff > What is the vertical scale?? > Giff > =20 > From: vtailjeff@aol.com [mailto:vtailjeff@aol= .com > ] > Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 7:03 PM > To: lml@lancaironline.net > Subject: Safety in our Community of Lancairs > =20 > Here is a pretty sobering chart. >=20 > Jeff > =20 >=20 > McCain or Obama? Stay up to date on the latest from the campaign trail wi= th > AOL News=20 > //news.aol.com/elections?ncid=3Demlcntusnews00000001> . > =20 >=20 > Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you browse w= ith > the Games Toolbar - Download Now! > //toolbar.aol.com/games/download.html?ncid=3Demlweusdown00000004> >=20 > Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you browse w= ith > the Games Toolbar - Download Now! > //toolbar.aol.com/games/download.html?ncid=3Demlweusdown00000004> >=20 --B_3309116320_223332 Content-type: text/html; charset="ISO-8859-1" Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable Re: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Jeff:

Thanks for the numbers.

Numbers don’t lie.  They just are.  Intelligent people will= pay attention, rather than quibble.

Keep up the good work.

John Hafen


On 11/9/08 4:10 PM, "vtailjeff@aol.com= " <vtailjeff@aol.com> wrote:

<= SPAN STYLE=3D'font-size:11pt'>Rick,

You have great points. Unfortunately we spend millions of dollars on the FA= A data and don't get much bang for the buck. Here is an interesting statisti= c I did last year on the medical certificate issue for a comment I submitted= the third class medical NPRM.

Which group of pilots have fewer per capita medically related accide= nts?

a. Pilots with medical certificates

b. Pilots without medical certificates

Answer is b. Pilots without medical certificates (glider pilots, balloon pi= lots) have fewer medically related accidents.
 I asked the aviation medical panel  at SNF why Private airplane = pilots needed medical certificates and their answer was that they used this = argument to support the light sport certificate no medical requirement. Unfo= rtunately they could not extend the same logic to the third class medical al= though they just upped the third class to five years for those under 40 (but= not changing a thing for the over 40 crowd).

Remember it is the FAA and their motto is "it does not have to make se= nse" ;)


Jeff



-----Original Message-----
From: Rick Titsworth <rtitsworth@min= dspring.com>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 8:51 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs

All good info.  But, as usually, we must be car= eful with the inferences from mis-used/mis-applied statistics.
To relate that private pilots make up 35% of the total pilot population and= 48% of GA accidents is pretty useless by itself.
 
i.e. What percentage of airline and/or commercial flight accidents are attr= ibuted private pilots?  Of course the answer is zero.  That’= s because the population of all airline/commercial pilots and the population= of all GA pilots are not the same.  Thus, relating the % of GA pilot t= ype accidents to the type % of the total pilot population (GA, commercial, a= nd airline) is on the surface inconclusive and perhaps mis-leading.
 
It could easily be that 60% of all GA pilots are private pilots and when as= sociated with the 48% private pilot accident statistic above leads to the op= posite conclusion that, in aggregate, the private pilots are actually less l= ikely to be correlated with the accident rate (generally fly in better weath= er on local flights, etc).
 
I’m all for ratings and training – but Jeff said “food fo= r thought” – so I couldn’t help but comment.
 

From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net <mailto:lml@lancaironline.net?> ] On Behalf Of <= a href=3D"vtailjeff@aol.com">vtailjeff@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 7:09 PM
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs
Here is more food for thought.

Jeff


-----Original Message-----
From: Giffen Marr <gamarr@charter.net&g= t;
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Wed, 5 Nov 2008 7:07 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs
Jeff
What is the vertical scale??
Giff
 
From: <= a href=3D"vtailjeff@aol.com">vtailjeff@aol.com <mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com>  [mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com<= /U> <mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com?= > ]
Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 7:03 PM
To: lml@lan= caironline.net <mai= lto:lml@lancaironline.net>
Subject: Safety in our Community of Lancairs
Here is a pretty sobering chart.

Jeff
=20

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