X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2008 19:10:41 -0500 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from web53701.mail.re2.yahoo.com ([206.190.37.22] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.2.10) with SMTP id 3282490 for lml@lancaironline.net; Sat, 08 Nov 2008 22:31:49 -0500 Received: (qmail 9763 invoked by uid 60001); 9 Nov 2008 03:31:48 -0000 DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; c=nofws; s=s1024; d=yahoo.com; h=X-YMail-OSG:Received:X-Mailer:Date:From:Reply-To:Subject:To:In-Reply-To:MIME-Version:Content-Type:Message-ID; b=h7Z1K8gwtP4FRRZoO0lkspPSJqG0IXwe570sUjwPTy04bY2uhfvvRgN8NxIqwrRM3/Bo/6Dya+1rL9Z07chVZ1NijFzd/PrE/tv9I88jtktNc/Sxv0WtFMtkFviYSaAve9K0EgfygEL2n0eL+5nqEFQ4etYj59m0kPuN19EJKnU=; X-YMail-OSG: caxv87QVM1k7CgujD9NlMoHqlXuMeczWO5b7yrJ0ZNBF4Uz11YyvzOibF.3gyAQnyIlrxYPVsUq3wyGLxtDr2S_bN3YfvwWndhHoNZWx2DVE2ztYfPSVW1dKAuH9AcaVpAJmT593Ll5M.BfvShRNtJpSQCwpabRijQUZUrzLyI9U.59b2it1Q9vkZRyg Received: from [66.32.73.88] by web53701.mail.re2.yahoo.com via HTTP; Sat, 08 Nov 2008 19:31:48 PST X-Mailer: YahooMailWebService/0.7.260.1 X-Original-Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 19:31:48 -0800 (PST) From: Kyrilian Dyer Reply-To: kyrilian_av@yahoo.com Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs X-Original-To: Lancair Mailing List In-Reply-To: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0-397137999-1226201508=:7546" X-Original-Message-ID: <701547.7546.qm@web53701.mail.re2.yahoo.com> --0-397137999-1226201508=:7546 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Jeff, I agree with your sentiment below, but I don't believe the numbers required= to truly make the point are available.=A0 The percentages below are useles= s if we don't know the number of hours flown and the number of pilots in a = given group.=A0 For instance, in your pie chart of accidents by certificate= , you show that only 1% of Lancair accidents occur with student pilots.=A0 = Are student pilots the safest? A true comparison of private and commercial (or ATP) pilots based on these = limited data is impossible to make.=A0 There are two unknowns here; the num= ber of Lancair pilots with a private, commercial, or ATP certificate, and t= he number of Lancair hours (not to be confused with total hours) the pilots= in each of those groups fly per year.=A0 Do private and commercial pilots = fly the same number of hours each year in Lancair aircraft?=A0 Even if we k= now the ratio of private to commercial and ATP pilots in the Lancair commun= ity, do we know the number of hours that each group flies.=A0 And the total= number of hours is useless--we need Lancair hours to compare the accident = rate in Lancairs. Let's compare a bunch of ATPs who fly a few hundred hours as jet captains b= ut only fly five hours each in Lancair aircraft each year with private pilo= ts flying their Lancairs a hundred hours each year.=A0 Say we look at a gro= up of a hundred private pilots that had twenty accidents and a group of ten= ATP jet pilots that had one accident in the same period.=A0 If we didn't k= now how many pilots were in each group or how much they flew we'd say that = the private pilots were twenty times more likely to have been involved in a= n accident.=A0 However, if we assume the above flight rates (in Lancairs), = the ATP group would have an accident rate ten times greater. ATP:=A0=A0=A0=A0 (1 accident=A0=A0=A0 / 10 pilots=A0=A0 / 5 hours per year)= =A0 =3D 0.02 accidents per hour per pilot Private: (20 accidents / 100 pilots /100 hours per year) =3D 0.002 accident= s per hour per pilot Obviously, the numbers above are simply hypothetical, and I would expect, f= ar from reality.=A0 However, it simply shows that without knowing the real = numbers, it's impossible to compare accident rates. You also bring up the relative number of pilots in each group (35% of the U= S pilot population is comprised of private pilots).=A0 But how many in each= group fly GA?=A0 While many airline pilots fly GA, I'm sure there are many= that haven't been in a light aircraft since they were private pilots.=A0 I= work with a bunch of very highly qualified experimental test pilots, most with ATPs and thousands of hours and all with military backgrounds.=A0 Only a small few fly light aircraft. So are student pilots the safest?=A0 I doubt it.=A0 Let's keep training, an= d try to get those hours in type higher (somehow). =A0Cheers, - Kyrilian --- On Sat, 11/8/08, vtailjeff@aol.com wrote: From: vtailjeff@aol.com Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Saturday, November 8, 2008, 10:10 AM Kevin,=20 I am not saying anything. I am just doing the math. Once I have finished th= e math I will=A0let everyone know... I did address the hour thing in the ot= her graph. Put the two together and you have a picture. Private pilot + low= time in type=3D higher risk of accident.=20 I agree that training reduces accidents.=A0=A0As I said earlier in my ten r= ecommendations to become a safer pilot is if you are going to spend the mon= ey training you might as well get a new rating. ;)=20 Jeff -----Original Message----- From: Kevin Stallard To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Fri, 7 Nov 2008 5:37 pm Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs _filtered #yiv317934532 {font-family:Calibri;panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4= ;} _filtered #yiv317934532 {font-family:Tahoma;panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 = 4;} _filtered #yiv317934532 {font-family:"Arial Black";panose-1:2 11 10 4 2= 1 2 2 2 4;} _filtered #yiv317934532 {margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}#yiv3= 17934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 #AOLMSGPART_2_A= 2795EDE-C7B3-447E-A9D5-A0373A4A58DE a:link {}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10= dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 #AOLMSGPART_2_A2795EDE-C7B3-447E-A9D5-A0= 373A4A58DE span.MSOHYPERLINK {}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-45= 35-a839-f5d2a935f534 #AOLMSGPART_2_A2795EDE-C7B3-447E-A9D5-A0373A4A58DE a:v= isited {}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 #= AOLMSGPART_2_A2795EDE-C7B3-447E-A9D5-A0373A4A58DE span.MSOHYPERLINKFOLLOWED= {} _filtered #yiv317934532 {font-family:"Arial Black";panose-1:2 11 10 4 2= 1 2 2 2 4;}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 p.MsoNormal, #yiv317934= 532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 li.MsoNormal, #yiv3= 17934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 div.MsoNormal = {margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New R= oman";}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 spa= n.EmailStyle18 {font-family:"Arial Black";color:black;text-transform:none;t= ext-shadow:none;font-weight:normal;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none n= one;vertical-align:baseline;}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535= -a839-f5d2a935f534 span.EmailStyle19 {font-family:"Arial Black";font-varian= t:normal;color:black;text-transform:none;text-shadow:none;font-weight:norma= l;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none none;vertical-align:baseline;}#yiv= 317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 p.msochpdefaul= t, #yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534=20 li.msochpdefault, #yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2= a935f534 div.msochpdefault {margin-right:0in;margin-left:0in;font-size:12.= 0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c48= 8-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 span.EmailStyle21 {font-family:"Arial Black";font-= variant:normal;color:black;text-transform:none;text-shadow:none;font-weight= :normal;font-style:normal;text-decoration:none none;vertical-align:baseline= ;}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 span.Ema= ilStyle22 {font-family:"Arial Black";font-variant:normal;color:black;text-t= ransform:none;text-shadow:none;font-weight:normal;font-style:normal;text-de= coration:none none;vertical-align:baseline;}#yiv317934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10d= cf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 span.EmailStyle23 {font-family:Arial;colo= r:navy;} _filtered #yiv317934532 {margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;}#yiv317= 934532 #AOLMsgPart_3_10dcf20c-c488-4535-a839-f5d2a935f534 div.Section1 {} Jeff, =A0 >While Private Pilot certificates comprise 35% of total U.S. pilot populati= on.=20 >Private pilots account for almost 55% of the Lancair accident population a= nd 48% of the GA accident population =A0 I think you are trying to say is =93If you only have a Private Pilot certif= icate, you are more likely to have an accident.=94=A0 And that you probably= mean to imply=20 that if you hold some other advanced rating, that you have a less chance of= having an accident. =A0 The propblem is (at least for me) is that 100% of GA accidents are caused b= y, well, =A0pilots, and half of those accidents (or thereabouts) are caused= by folks with higher ratings than a private pilot (according to your numbe= rs). =A0 I=92m not convienced that a rating is the thing that is indicative of the l= ikely hood of an having an accident, however, I think that the amount of pr= actice and training are, and unfortunalty ratings don=92t accuratly reflect= this quantity.=A0 However, a logbook usually does.=A0=A0 Maybe that=92s we= re we need to look. =A0 Kevin =A0=0A=0A=0A --0-397137999-1226201508=:7546 Content-Type: text/html; charset=windows-1252 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Jeff,

I agree with your sentiment belo= w, but I don't believe the numbers required to truly make the point are ava= ilable.  The percentages below are useless if we don't know the number= of hours flown and the number of pilots in a given group.  For instan= ce, in your pie chart of accidents by certificate, you show that only 1% of= Lancair accidents occur with student pilots.  Are student pilots the = safest?

A true comparison of private and commercial (or ATP) pilots = based on these limited data is impossible to make.  There are two unkn= owns here; the number of Lancair pilots with a private, commercial, or ATP = certificate, and the number of Lancair hours (not to be confused with total= hours) the pilots in each of those groups fly per year.  Do private a= nd commercial pilots fly the same number of hours each year in Lancair aircraft?  Even if we know the ratio of private to commercial and ATP= pilots in the Lancair community, do we know the number of hours that each = group flies.  And the total number of hours is useless--we need Lancai= r hours to compare the accident rate in Lancairs.

Let's compare a bu= nch of ATPs who fly a few hundred hours as jet captains but only fly five h= ours each in Lancair aircraft each year with private pilots flying their La= ncairs a hundred hours each year.  Say we look at a group of a hundred= private pilots that had twenty accidents and a group of ten ATP jet pilots= that had one accident in the same period.  If we didn't know how many= pilots were in each group or how much they flew we'd say that the private = pilots were twenty times more likely to have been involved in an accident.&= nbsp; However, if we assume the above flight rates (in Lancairs), the ATP g= roup would have an accident rate ten times greater.

ATP:     (1 accident&nbs= p;   / 10 pilots   / 5 hours per year)   =3D 0.02 = accidents per hour per pilot
Private: (20 accidents / 100 pilots /100 ho= urs per year) =3D 0.002 accidents per hour per pilot

Obviously, the = numbers above are simply hypothetical, and I would expect, far from reality= .  However, it simply shows that without knowing the real numbers, it'= s impossible to compare accident rates.

You also bring up the relati= ve number of pilots in each group (35% of the US pilot population is compri= sed of private pilots).  But how many in each group fly GA?  Whil= e many airline pilots fly GA, I'm sure there are many that haven't been in = a light aircraft since they were private pilots.  I work with a bunch = of very highly qualified experimental test pilots, most with ATPs and thousands of hours and all with military backgrounds.  Only a small few fly light aircraft.

So are stude= nt pilots the safest?  I doubt it.  Let's keep training, and try = to get those hours in type higher (somehow).

 Cheers,
- Kyri= lian

--- On Sat, 11/8/08, vtailjeff@aol.com <vtailjeff@aol.= com> wrote:
From: vtailjeff@aol.com = <vtailjeff@aol.com>
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of = Lancairs
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Date: Saturday, November 8, 2008, = 10:10 AM

Kevin,

I am not saying anything. I am just doing the math. Once I have finished th= e math I will let everyone know... I did address the hour thing in the= other graph. Put the two together and you have a picture. Private pilot + = low time in type=3D higher risk of accident.

I agree that training reduces accidents.  As I said earlier in my= ten recommendations to become a safer pilot is if you are going to spend t= he money training you might as well get a new rating. ;)

Jeff


-----Original Message-----
From: Kevin Stallard <Kevin@arilabs.net>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Fri, 7 Nov 2008 5:37 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs

Jeff,=
 
>While Pr= ivate Pilot certificates comprise 35% of total U.S. pilot population.
>Private = pilots account for almost 55% of the Lancair accident population and 48% of= the GA accident population
 
I think you = are trying to say is =93If you only have a Private Pilot certificate, you a= re more likely to have an accident.=94  And that you probably mean to = imply
that if you = hold some other advanced rating, that you have a less chance of having an a= ccident.
 
The propblem= is (at least for me) is that 100% of GA accidents are caused by, well, &nb= sp;pilots, and half of those accidents (or thereabouts) are caused by folks= with higher ratings than a private pilot (according to your numbers).
 
I=92m not co= nvienced that a rating is the thing that is indicative of the likely hood o= f an having an accident, however, I think that the amount of practice and t= raining are, and unfortunalty ratings don=92t accuratly reflect this quanti= ty.  However, a logbook usually does.   Maybe that=92s were = we need to look.
 
Kevin=
 

= =0A=0A=0A=0A --0-397137999-1226201508=:7546--