X-Virus-Scanned: clean according to Sophos on Logan.com Return-Path: Sender: To: lml@lancaironline.net Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2008 19:10:41 -0500 Message-ID: X-Original-Return-Path: Received: from imo-d23.mx.aol.com ([205.188.139.137] verified) by logan.com (CommuniGate Pro SMTP 5.2.10) with ESMTP id 3282851 for lml@lancaironline.net; Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:05:06 -0500 Received: from VTAILJEFF@aol.com by imo-d23.mx.aol.com (mail_out_v39.1.) id q.d3b.2e2ae525 (34928) for ; Sun, 9 Nov 2008 10:05:00 -0500 (EST) Received: from webmail-mf05 (webmail-mf05.webmail.aol.com [64.12.88.218]) by cia-da04.mx.aol.com (v121_r4.6) with ESMTP id MAILCIADA041-88704916fc1c16c; Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:05:00 -0500 References: X-Original-To: lml@lancaironline.net Subject: Re: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs X-Original-Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:05:00 -0500 X-AOL-IP: 71.85.153.156 In-Reply-To: X-MB-Message-Source: WebUI MIME-Version: 1.0 From: vtailjeff@aol.com X-MB-Message-Type: User Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="--------MB_8CB1093ABECC6E7_D58_3339_webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com" X-Mailer: AOL Webmail 39598-STANDARD Received: from 71.85.153.156 by webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com (64.12.88.218) with HTTP (WebMailUI); Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:05:00 -0500 X-Original-Message-Id: <8CB1093AB817C61-D58-1898@webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com> X-Spam-Flag:NO ----------MB_8CB1093ABECC6E7_D58_3339_webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Rick, You have great points. Unfortunately we spend millions of dollars on the FAA= data and don't get much bang for the buck. Here is an interesting statistic= I did last year on the medical certificate issue for a comment I submitted=20= the third class medical NPRM.=20 Which group of pilots have fewer per capita medically related accidents?=20 a. Pilots with medical certificates b. Pilots without medical certificates Answer is b. Pilots without medical certificates (glider pilots, balloon pil= ots) have fewer medically related accidents.=20 =C2=A0I asked the aviation medical panel =C2=A0at SNF why Private airplane p= ilots needed medical certificates and their answer was that they used this a= rgument to support the light sport certificate no medical requirement. Unfor= tunately they could not extend the same logic to the third class medical alt= hough they just upped the third class to five years for those under 40 (but=20= not changing a thing for the over 40 crowd).=20 Remember it is the FAA and their motto is "it does not have to make sense" ;= ) Jeff -----Original Message----- From: Rick Titsworth To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 8:51 pm Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs All good info. =C2=A0But, as usually, we must be careful with the inferences= from mis-used/mis-applied statistics. To relate that private pilots make up 35% of the total pilot population and=20= 48% of GA accidents is pretty useless by itself. =C2=A0 i.e. What percentage of airline and/or commercial flight accidents are attri= buted private pilots?=C2=A0 Of course the answer is zero.=C2=A0 That=E2=80= =99s because the population of all airline/commercial pilots and the populat= ion of all GA pilots are not the same.=C2=A0 Thus, relating the % of GA pilo= t type accidents to the type % of the total pilot population (GA, commercial= , and airline) is on the surface inconclusive and perhaps mis-leading. =C2=A0 It could easily be that 60% of all GA pilots are private pilots and when ass= ociated with the 48% private pilot accident statistic above leads to the opp= osite conclusion that, in aggregate, the private pilots are actually less li= kely to be correlated with the accident rate (generally fly in better weathe= r on local flights, etc). =C2=A0 I=E2=80=99m all for ratings and training =E2=80=93 but Jeff said =E2=80=9Cfo= od for thought=E2=80=9D =E2=80=93 so I couldn=E2=80=99t help but comment. =C2=A0 From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of vtail= jeff@aol.com Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 7:09 PM To: lml@lancaironline.net Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs =C2=A0 Here is more food for thought.=20 Jeff -----Original Message----- From: Giffen Marr To: lml@lancaironline.net Sent: Wed, 5 Nov 2008 7:07 pm Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs Jeff What is the vertical scale?? Giff =C2=A0 From: vtailjeff@aol.com [mailto:vtailjeff@aol.com]=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 7:03 PM To: lml@lancaironline.net Subject: Safety in our Community of Lancairs =C2=A0 Here is a pretty sobering chart. Jeff =C2=A0 McCain or Obama? Stay up to date on the latest from the campaign trail with=20= AOL News.=20 =C2=A0 Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you browse with= the Games Toolbar - Download Now!=20 ----------MB_8CB1093ABECC6E7_D58_3339_webmail-mf05.sysops.aol.com Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Rick,

You have great points. Unfortunately we spend millions of dollars on the FAA= data and don't get much bang for the buck. Here is an interesting statistic= I did last year on the medical certificate issue for a comment I submitted=20= the third class medical NPRM.

Which group of pilots have fewer per capita medically related acciden= ts?

a. Pilots with medical certificates

b. Pilots without medical certificates

Answer is b. Pilots without medical certificates (glider pilots, balloon pil= ots) have fewer medically related accidents.=20
<= /FONT>
 I asked the aviation medical panel  at SNF why Private airplane p= ilots needed medical certificates and their answer was that they used this a= rgument to support the light sport certificate no medical requirement. Unfor= tunately they could not extend the same logic to the third class medical alt= hough they just upped the third class to five years for those under 40 (but=20= not changing a thing for the over 40 crowd).

Remember it is the FAA and their motto is "it does not have to make sense" ;= )


Jeff



-----Original Message-----
From: Rick Titsworth <rtitsworth@mindspring.com>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Sat, 8 Nov 2008 8:51 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs

All good info.  B= ut, as usually, we must be careful with the inferences from mis-used/mis-app= lied statistics.
To relate that private= pilots make up 35% of the total pilot population and 48% of GA accidents is= pretty useless by itself.
 
i.e. What percentage o= f airline and/or commercial flight accidents are attributed private pilots?&= nbsp; Of course the answer is zero.  That=E2=80=99s because the populat= ion of all airline/commercial pilots and the population of all GA pilots are= not the same.  Thus, relating the % of GA pilot type accidents to the=20= type % of the total pilot population (GA, commercial, and airline) is on the= surface inconclusive and perhaps mis-leading.
 
It could easily be tha= t 60% of all GA pilots are private pilots and when associated with the 48% p= rivate pilot accident statistic above leads to the opposite conclusion that,= in aggregate, the private pilots are actually less likely to be correlated=20= with the accident rate (generally fly in better weather on local flights, et= c).
 
I=E2=80=99m all for ra= tings and training =E2=80=93 but Jeff said =E2=80=9Cfood for thought=E2=80= =9D =E2=80=93 so I couldn=E2=80=99t help but comment.
 
From: Lancair Mailing List [mailto:= lml@lancaironline.net] On Behalf Of= vtailjeff@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, November 06,= 2008 7:09 PM
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in= our Community of Lancairs
 
Here is more food for thoug= ht.

Jeff


-----Original Message-----
From: Giffen Marr <gamarr@charter.n= et>
To: lml@lancaironline.net
Sent: Wed, 5 Nov 2008 7:07 pm
Subject: [LML] Re: Safety in our Community of Lancairs
Jeff<= /SPAN>
What=20= is the vertical scale??
Giff<= /SPAN>
 = ;
From: vtailjeff@aol.com [mailto= :vtailjeff@aol.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 04,=20= 2008 7:03 PM
To: lml@lanca= ironline.net
Subject: Safety in our Commu= nity of Lancairs
 
Here is a pretty sobering chart.

Jeff
 <= /div>
McCain or Obama? Stay= up to date on the latest from the campaign trail with AOL News. =
 <= /div>
Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you= browse with the Games Toolbar - <= SPAN style=3D"COLOR: blue">Download Now!

Instant access to the latest & most popular FREE games while you b= rowse with the Games Toolbar - Download Now!
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