Posted for vtailjeff@aol.com:

 Tom,
 
 
 
 I respectfully disagree with your logic. The folks with over 1000 hours have
1000 times (f we measure exposure by hours) the risk exposure  compared to the
pilot who crashes on the first flight.If we take each flight or each hour as a
single risk event then the likelihood of me having an accident would be equal
to the accident pilot on any given flight. Just like rolling the dice. These
same statistics are borne  out across the board in GA. Go the website aopa.org
and read the Nall report published annually.  Low time in type is a great
discriminator. That is why the insurance industry requires X number hours in
type before you are covered. This is not a small subset of people here. 
 
 
  Lorn is the statistician here--any comment?
 
  
  
 Jeff