John,

I second your comments. Please allow me to add to your confusion as to why we do what we do.

I am an anesthesiologist. I've lost track of the number of surgeries I've cancelled due to "trivial" problems. Those people had scheduled their "trip" way in advance, and the cancellation led to major disruptions. They all had "get-home-itis." They wanted to get through their surgery and get home. But as the referee, I blew the whistle and refused to allow them to continue, EVEN WHEN THEY WANTED TO ASSUME THE RISK.

Now look at Andreas Gruentzig MD. He was the cardiologist who invented coronary balloon angioplasty in 1977. On October 27, 1985, he flew his Beech Baron into cumulus granitus. He was instrument rated (not current), but thought as a great doctor that he could handle anything. He exemplifies why the V-35 was called the "V-tailed doctor killer."

Now, allow me to brag. As a low-time VFR pilot years ago, I departed Fort Lauderdale for Orlando in my Archer, carrying three pax. I delayed my departure an hour to allow weather to improve. On the second briefing, I was advised of a corridor to fly for good weather. I filed and departed. Approach was machine-gun radio traffic, and I couldn't call in on a hand-off to Palm Beach. All of a sudden, the windshield turned black. Rain drummed out all communication. I immediately executed a 180 on the gauges. After a few seconds, I was able to call approach. We rerouted and the flight was completed safely.

Now that doesn't seem like much, but it's the opposite of Gruentzig. Another time I sat out weather at PDK when my FBO in Orlando insisted on getting their plane back. I asked them how many pieces they wanted it in.

I can't explain why we demonstrate bad judgment. I can't explain how to test for judgment. Even with good judgment we'll lose a few. But the bottom line is poor judgment, and perseveration in the face of contrary conditions. (I used the psych term intentionally.) Anyone who can develop a valid test of judgment will reduce our insurance costs dramatically.

Ted Noel MD
N540TF


----- Original Message ----- From: "Halle, John" <JJHALLE@stoel.com>
To: <lml@lancaironline.net>
Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 2:13 AM
Subject: [LML] Re: some thoughts on accidents


In the seven years (and more than 700 hrs.) that I have been a part of the Lancair community, I have had literally hundreds of discussions about what is killing Lancair pilots at a totally unacceptable rate.  I have also listened to presentations such as Jeff's at OSH.  We all keep agreeing that there is a critical problem, we generally identify correctly what it is and we all profess a commitment to do something about it.  But the accident rate continues to be way higher than it should be.  People like Joe Bartels and Tim Ong are frustrated beyond description but at a loss to find anything effective to do about it.  I suspect I can't either but, in an effort to do what I can, here are some thoughts generally centered around what I think are misperceptions that those who get into these crashes seem to have about their own capabilities and the capabilities of the aircraft (with apologies for the length.)