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Steve Colwell wrote:
My guess is he lifted off in ground effect, with the stall horn blareing he
did not have enough runway to abort, then added just a little elevator to
clear the hill at the end of the runway. I understand the pilot was a
professional with many hours.
According to several people who analyzed the engine sound on the video using the utility http://tunelab-world.com/rpmsound.html the engine was turning at about 2250 RPM and not 2700 RPM (after supposedly correcting for doppler effects). I do not know enough about the technology used for compressing audio data for posting to the internet to know if the numbers are accurate or if there is aliasing going on due to compression. The investigators will have access to the raw tape and will be able to determine the RPM accurately.
The video clearly shows no flaps being used. Is that normal for the aircraft and the conditions? While it appears incorrect to me, I do not have the POH, which will have the final word. If the flaps were supposed to be down and the pilot "forgot" then that leads to whole lot of questions about pilot performance; either general attitude or performance that particular day. Let me reiterate that this point is applicable only IF the POH called for flaps.
According to published weather, there was a 5 knot tail wind. That certainly did not help.
I do not know the W&B for the particular year/model, but the question of being over gross has to be considered. Several sources have quoted the useful load for the model year as less than 1100 lbs, while others have quoted several hundred pounds higher. Four adults, baggage for a Mexico vacation and enough fuel to make it there will most probably add up to more than 1100 pounds, maybe quite a bit more.
What is indisputable is that the pilot will have a really rough time of it recovering from this.
Regards,
Hamid
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