Message-ID: <3B3371CF.FDAB97D5@visi.com>
Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 11:26:55 -0500
From: Michael <smithm@visi.com>
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To: lancair.list@olsusa.com
Subject: Re: Information on the crash of Lancair IVP N424E
References: <3B326084.701A32B2@regandesigns.com>
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Reply-To: lancair.list@olsusa.com

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I have to echo Brent's comment on the recent crash of 424E.  It saddens me
deeply, too, and I still have some of his sage advice e-mail to me that have
helped me through the building and flying process.

I have to echo an appeal for conservatism.

One of the things that I have learned as an orthopedic surgeon is that things
aren't always as they seem, and after 1400 spinal cord surgeries, I am often
impressed with the question "What would I have done had I not done the 1350
prior surgeries?" Something always comes up in the process to make a routine
case not so routine.  Blood loss, spinal cord monitoring, blood pressure, end
expiratory pressures, and so on, seem to be the same things we monitor as we
fly, EGT, CHT, fuel flow, and so on.

So it goes with flying.  I know the flight plan computer called for 73 gallons,
just like I estimate a surgery scheduled for 3 hours.  Tony was great at
championing 50 LOP for speed and CHT considerations and 277 knots, just like I
estimated blood loss for a cervical fusion to be 50 cc, plus or minus 300 cc.  I
wonder how many of you have had flights that the ETA, fuel burn, ETE, weather
winds, ATC delays all conspired to make the printout look like a mere suggestion
of accuracy?  This also includes estimates of reserves of just 7 gallons.

There is a saying in orthopedic surgery that indicates one should avoid surgeons
that are good at getting out of trouble.  No flight is necessarily routine or
predictable, and conservative measures should be chosen.  I have a personal
guideline that can be summarized " I'd rather be in the lounge wishing I were
operating, that operating wishing I was in the lounge"  Every time I pushed the
margins, I seem to recall that more often than normal.

In both fields we bury our mistakes.

Michael D Smith
Cervical Spine Specialists

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