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While I agree with the opinion that 100LL is on the way out, I do not think
it is within the next 5 or even 10 years. Predictions of the demise of 100LL
have been offered by experts in the field since the late 1970s. Notably
among them is Ed Willis, then Director of the Intermittent Combustion
Department at NASA's Lewis Research Center who authored several papers on
the need to develop engines that could burn Jet-A for that very reason.

Automobile gas, or MoGas, is not the answer for several reasons. Among them
are the fact that MoGas is the "Hot Dog" of the refining industry. It is the
place where they put all the stuff there isn't a market for. As a
hydrocarbon dumping ground, it's properties vary considerably from lot to
lot. It may have a significant fraction of volatile components that can
"boil off" within weeks or days. Contamination during transportation, by
pipeline or tanker, is also an issue. What it comes down to is that MoGas is
not controlled enough during cracking and distribution to bet your life on.
We haven't even gotten to the liability issues.

AvGas is already a "Boutique" fuel so it is reasonable to expect that it
will continue to be available as long as there is a market for it and that
it's price will remain a function of demand and of the price of crude.

The day is coming when you won't be able to buy a gallon of AvGas, but it
will be because nobody needs or wants to, not because they stopped making it
when there was still a demand. For now, I'm not loosing sleep over being
able to get fuel for my TIO-540.

Regards
Brent Regan

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