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Subject: RE: great lakes.
From: Jeff Peterson <jeffreyb.peterson@gmail.com>
X-Original-To: Lancair mail list <lml@lancaironline.net>
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I have crossed Lake Michigan in a Mooney many times.

I have also crossed the Allegheny Mountains in PA many times.
If you want to go east from Pittsburgh you have to go out over these
heavily wooded mountains.
In the PA mountains there is really no place to land safely with engine out.

Basically, In both cases, I accept the extra likelihood that an engine
failure would be fatal.

Night IFR carries a similar extra risk. Some people never fly night IFR for
this reason, but some accept the risk.

With a bit of thought one can calculate a fair estimate of these risks.

I figure that life itself seems to always end in death, with an average
rate around 1 death per 75 year lifespan.
Therefore, if my aviation activities carry a risk of death 10^-3/ year,
that seems OK to me personally.

Fortunately aviation engines are very reliable and ten-twenty hours per
year of operation over-forest/over-water, in stable cruise configuration,
with plenty of fuel, falls below my personal risk threshold.

Over Lake Michigan I try to spot a series of boats to land next to if I
need to ditch. About half the time
there is one within gliding distance.   However, I understand it is not so
easy to ditch without flipping and getting the canopy open can also be a
challenge.


-- 
Jeff Peterson
LNC 360 N273CK in final assembly.

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I have crossed Lake Michigan in a Mooney many times.<div><br></div><div>I h=
ave also crossed the Allegheny Mountains in PA many times.</div><div>If you=
 want to go east from Pittsburgh you have to go out over these heavily wood=
ed mountains.</div>
<div>In the PA mountains there is really no place to land safely with engin=
e out.</div><div><div><br></div><div>Basically, In both cases, I accept the=
 extra likelihood that an engine failure would=A0be fatal.</div><div><br>
</div><div>Night IFR carries a similar extra risk. Some people never fly ni=
ght IFR for this reason, but some accept the risk.</div><div><div><br></div=
><div>With a bit of thought one can calculate a fair estimate of these risk=
s.=A0</div>
<div><br></div><div>I figure that life itself seems to always end in death,=
 with an average rate around 1 death per 75 year lifespan.</div><div>Theref=
ore, if my aviation activities carry a risk of death 10^-3/ year, that seem=
s OK to me personally.</div>
<div><br></div></div><div>Fortunately aviation engines are very reliable an=
d ten-twenty hours per year of operation=A0over-forest/over-water,=A0in sta=
ble cruise configuration,=A0</div><div>with plenty of fuel, falls=A0below m=
y personal risk threshold. =A0</div>
<div><div><br></div><div>Over Lake Michigan I try to spot a series of boats=
 to land next to if I need to ditch. About half the time</div><div>there is=
 one within gliding distance. =A0=A0However, I understand it is not so easy=
 to ditch without flipping and getting the canopy open can also be a challe=
nge.</div>
<div><br></div><div><br></div><div>-- <br>Jeff Peterson<br>LNC 360 N273CK i=
n final assembly.
</div></div></div>

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