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To: flyrotary@lancaironline.net
Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2005 17:27:38 -0700
Subject: risk reduction methods
Message-ID: <20050607.172745.3732.3.alwick@juno.com>
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From: al p wick <alwick@juno.com>

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You guys ever have the experience of reading something that bugs you. You
know, you start looking for flaws in the persons statements, stuff like
that? Doesn't take long, you say "BULL!. I KNOW better". Pretty soon you
just blow off the whole thing? If you feel that way, you will always be
right. There's nothing to learn. If you're not feeling that way, please
read on......

So I'll try one more time to explain one of the keys to success. Before I
do, you need to take 3 valium, get a massage, then come back and read
this........
When you have any theory, you need to find a way to convert that to
facts. This is profound. You see, we don't do that naturally. We are very
comfortable making decisions entirely based on theory. Theory are
thoughts. Facts are numbers. We need to distinguish the two. 
So I provided a great example of the Subaru timing chain defect. Can you
find a way to convert those concepts to your aircraft? If you can, you
are on the path. 
Let's take a real world example. Your fuel delivery system. How do you
know the distance between it and failure? Vapor lock failure is at one
end of a curve. We want to be as far as possible from that end. How do
you know that distance? Right now we use theory. We guess. We say: "
Well, Bill hasn't had vapor lock and he's flown for 300 hours. Clearly
that's the best path." If you have to guess, that is a good guess. But
you don't have to guess. You can easily measure your safety margin. There
are many simple tricks to measuring all of your safety margins. Not just
this item. So I'm saying, put your skills into converting your best
theory for fuel delivery, into how do I convert that idea to facts?

Of course, I'm assuming that there are users who are unable to install
intank pumps. After all, those pumps do virtually eliminate all vapor
lock risk. Perry did just that. Way to be Perry! You took action on a
risk item, that may have killed one of our guys(speculation), and you
totally eliminated that risk item. That is so friggin significant.

Ok, so you made it all the way to the bottom of this post. Take two more
valium,  reread..........THEN FIRE AWAY!!!!!!!


-al wick
Artificial intelligence in cockpit, Cozy IV powered by stock Subaru 2.5
N9032U 200+ hours on engine/airframe from Portland, Oregon
Prop construct, Subaru install, Risk assessment, Glass panel design info:
http://www.maddyhome.com/canardpages/pages/alwick/index.html
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<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>You guys ever have the experience of reading something that bugs you. =
You=20
know, you start looking for flaws in the persons statements, stuff like =
that?=20
Doesn't take long, you say "BULL!. I KNOW better". Pretty soon you just =
blow off=20
the whole thing? If you feel that way, you will always be right. There's =
nothing=20
to learn. If you're not feeling that way, please&nbsp;read on......</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>So I'll try one more time to explain one of the keys to&nbsp;success.=
=20
Before I do, you need to take 3 valium, get a massage, then come back and =
read=20
this........</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D4>When you have any theory, you need to find a way to =
convert=20
that to facts</FONT>. This is profound. You see, we don't do that naturally=
. We=20
are very comfortable making decisions entirely based on theory. Theory are=
=20
thoughts. Facts are numbers. We need to distinguish the two. </DIV>
<DIV>So I provided a great example of the Subaru timing chain defect. Can =
you=20
find a way to convert those concepts to your aircraft? If you can, you are =
on=20
the path. </DIV>
<DIV>Let's take a real world example. Your fuel delivery system. How do you=
 know=20
the distance between it and failure? Vapor lock failure is at one end of a=
=20
curve. We want to be as far as possible from that end. How do you know that=
=20
distance? Right now we use theory. We guess. We say: " Well, Bill hasn't =
had=20
vapor lock and he's flown for 300 hours. Clearly that's the best path."&=
nbsp;If=20
you have to guess, that is a good guess. But you don't have to guess. You =
can=20
easily measure your safety margin. There are many simple tricks to =
measuring all=20
of your safety margins. Not just this item. So I'm saying, put your skills =
into=20
converting your best theory for fuel delivery, into how&nbsp;do I convert =
that=20
idea to facts?</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Of course, I'm assuming that there are users who are unable to install=
=20
intank pumps. After all, those pumps&nbsp;do virtually <FONT size=3D4>=
eliminate=20
all vapor lock</FONT> risk.&nbsp;Perry did just that. Way to be Perry! You =
took=20
action on a risk item, that may have killed one of our guys(speculation), =
and=20
you totally eliminated that risk item. That is so friggin significant.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Ok, so you made it all the way to the bottom of this post. Take two =
more=20
valium,&nbsp; reread..........THEN FIRE AWAY!!!!!!!</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>-al wick<BR>Artificial intelligence in cockpit, Cozy IV powered by =
stock=20
Subaru 2.5<BR>N9032U 200+ hours on engine/airframe from Portland, Oregon<BR=
>Prop=20
construct, Subaru install, Risk assessment, Glass panel design info:<BR><A=
=20
href=3D"http://www.maddyhome.com/canardpages/pages/alwick/index.html">http:=
//www.maddyhome.com/canardpages/pages/alwick/index.html</A><BR></DIV></BODY=
></HTML>

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